NHL player model performance

Average error describes how far predictions were from actual production. An error of 0.10 goals per game means predictions differed by about one goal per ten games on average. It does not tell you whether predictions were generally too high or too low.

The totals in the detail table apply predicted rates to actual games played. They are not fixed 82-game forecasts, so differences focus on scoring rate rather than missed games. Results describe the selected season; an unfinished season is still a work in progress.

Points here are derived from the goals and assists projections, as in the existing data view, rather than evaluating the separate points model. Goals and assists summary errors retain the existing calculation based on rounded per-game differences.

Positive table differences mean the model predicted too much; negative differences mean the player scored more than predicted. Players with few games can have unstable rates.