Betting tools
NHL odds calculator
Compare model probability to sportsbook odds and calculate fair odds, implied probability, edge, expected value, and Kelly stake sizing.
Loaded line
-110
Model probability
55.0%
Inputs
Compare model probability to market price
Loaded values can be adjusted. Results update automatically as you type.
Results
Calculated betting metrics
1. Model win probability
Your model’s estimated chance of the team winning.
2. Fair odds
The no-vig odds implied by the model probability.
Fair Decimal Odds = 1 / Probability
3. Sportsbook implied probability
The break-even win rate represented by the sportsbook price.
Positive odds: 100 / (odds + 100)
Negative odds: abs(odds) / (abs(odds) + 100)
4. Edge
The difference between model probability and market implied probability.
Edge = Model Probability − Sportsbook Implied Probability
5. Expected profit and EV
The average estimated profit or loss over many similar bets.
Expected Profit = (Probability × Profit if Win) − ((1 − Probability) × Bet Amount)
EV% = Expected Profit / Bet Amount
6. Kelly stake
A bankroll percentage based on edge and payout. Fractional Kelly is less aggressive.
Kelly % = ((b × p) − q) / b
Quick interpretation
- Fair odds are the no-vig odds implied by the model probability.
- Edge is the model probability minus the sportsbook’s implied probability.
- Positive EV means the model considers the sportsbook price favourable.
- Kelly sizing converts the estimated edge into a bankroll-aware stake suggestion.