NHL daily edge board

1. Model Win Probability

This is the model’s estimate of how often a team should win. For example, 58.0% means the model expects that side to win about 58 times out of 100.

2. Fair Odds

Fair odds are the no-margin odds based on the model probability. They represent the break-even price implied by the model itself.

3. Best Book / Loaded Odds

The page loads the best captured sportsbook line for each side from the final pregame snapshot before scheduled start. You can still overwrite it manually if you want to compare a different price.

4. Implied Probability

This is the win probability implied by the sportsbook price. It is calculated directly from the odds.

5. Edge

Edge is the difference between the model probability and the sportsbook implied probability.

Formula: Model Probability − Implied Probability

6. EV

EV stands for expected value. It estimates whether the entered price is favorable based on the model probability and payout.

Positive EV suggests theoretical value. Negative EV suggests the price is not favorable based on the model.

7. Kelly

Kelly is a bankroll sizing formula. It suggests what percentage of a bankroll to stake if the edge is real.

On this page, negative Kelly values are shown as 0.0% for readability.