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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 17, 2026.

October 17, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

2
Final
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

6 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 60.6% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

39.4%
Fair American +154
Fair decimal 2.54
Best market +195 · BetRivers
Market implied 33.9%
Edge +5.5%
Expected value +16.2%
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

60.6%
Fair American -154
Fair decimal 1.65
Best market -198 · Bovada
Market implied 66.4%
Edge -5.8%
Expected value -8.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

68:00 together · 7 games

xG share50.3%
Corsi for / against
68 / 58
Fenwick for / against
51 / 42
Corsi share
54.0%
Fenwick share
54.8%
xG for / against
3.06 / 3.03
Defense pair

102:24 together · 8 games

xG share56.4%
Corsi for / against
105 / 97
Fenwick for / against
76 / 63
Corsi share
52.0%
Fenwick share
54.7%
xG for / against
5.97 / 4.61
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

93:16 together · 9 games

xG share67.8%
Corsi for / against
106 / 79
Fenwick for / against
80 / 53
Corsi share
57.3%
Fenwick share
60.2%
xG for / against
5.67 / 2.69
Defense pair

131:12 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
151 / 115
Fenwick for / against
107 / 82
Corsi share
56.8%
Fenwick share
56.6%
xG for / against
7.84 / 4.62
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Sergei Murashov 89.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Sergei Murashov?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.500
Started last game
+0.438
Prev save pct
-0.384
Days since last start
+0.250
Goalie win pct before
-0.247
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Vegas Golden Knights

Adin Hill 55.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Adin Hill?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
-0.535
Started last game
+0.395
Goalie win pct before
+0.288
Team win pct before
-0.278
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
-0.242
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 16

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
128
Save %
87.5
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
31.2

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 15

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
90.8
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
32.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.46
xG against / game
3.32
xG differential / game
0.14

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.65
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
1.09

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
50.6
Faceoff win %
45.0
Penalties / game
3.38

Shots / game: 28.9 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 30.5 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
62.3
Corsi share (%)
53.9
Fenwick share (%)
54.1
Faceoff win %
51.8
Penalties / game
3.56

Shots / game: 31.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
11Points17
0.458Points %0.654
40Goals for47
40Goals against38
0Goal differential9
W2Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
7Games7
1Wins5
3Points10
-6Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
3-6-1Record6-3-1
7Points13
27Goals for36
35Goals against30
-8Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 4 wins
Total goals31 – 28
Goal differential +3 / -3
Goals per game3.1 / 2.8
Shots per game30.1 / 30.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 12, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 6 26 - 17 View
Mar 1, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 5 22 - 22 View
Mar 11, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 3 37 - 17 View
Mar 7, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
0 - 4 22 - 27 View
Jan 20, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 3 25 - 29 View
Nov 19, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 3 38 - 32 View
Jan 5, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5 40 - 31 View
Dec 1, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 4 37 - 47 View
Mar 11, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 5 42 - 33 View
Jan 17, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 3 37 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT VGK