Explore the numbers
NHL Win Scenario Explorer
Find how often teams win under the conditions you choose. Compare the results with their usual performance over the same period.
Pregame: Explore conditions known before puck drop, such as rest, recent form, model win probability and the expected starting goalie. This asks: ?How often did teams win when they entered a game in this situation??
Game results: Explore what happened during the game, such as shots, xG and save percentage. This asks: ?How often did teams win when they finished with these numbers?? These results cannot be used as information known before that game.
Rest and recent form are reconstructed from earlier games. Model probabilities and expected goalies use saved snapshots from before puck drop; older games may not have those snapshots.
Build your scenario
Your scenario
334 matching team-games · 167 distinct games.
334 team-games selected; 334 have every required metric; 0 excluded for missing data. With all teams selected, both sides of a game can appear.
What is the comparable baseline? It is the win rate for all team-games in your selected season, team, date range and home/away setting that have the data needed for your conditions, before checking whether those conditions match. Your scenario win rate uses only the games that pass every condition.
For example, if you select Winnipeg at home and at least two rest days, the baseline includes all eligible Winnipeg home games in that period; the scenario includes only those with at least two rest days. A scenario win rate of 60% versus a 50% baseline is a gain of 10 percentage points. With all teams and both venues selected, the baseline is normally 50% because each game contributes a winner and a loser; missing data can change that balance.
Win rate over time
Blue: scenario · Gray: comparable baseline. Empty months remain gaps.
Home and away
Matching team-games by month
Chart values and counting details
| Period | Scenario wins / team-games | Win rate | Baseline wins / team-games | Baseline win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 8 / 16 | 50.0% | 8 / 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10 | 159 / 318 | 50.0% | 159 / 318 | 50.0% |
| Home | 98 / 167 | 58.7% | 98 / 167 | 58.7% |
| Away | 69 / 167 | 41.3% | 69 / 167 | 41.3% |
These are historical associations, not a new win prediction. Rest/form are reconstructed; snapshots are genuine saved pregame records. Expected goalie means the starter model's top-ranked candidate, not the actual starter. No earlier season is substituted when five current-season games are unavailable. Team save percentage excludes empty-net goals through goalie box-score totals.
Matching games
Click a column heading to sort. Scores are shown from each row's team's perspective.
Colorado Avalanche
Tampa Bay Lightning
Chicago Blackhawks
Montréal Canadiens
Vancouver Canucks
Detroit Red Wings
Utah Mammoth
Seattle Kraken
Edmonton Oilers
Carolina Hurricanes
Minnesota Wild
Calgary Flames
Winnipeg Jets
Dallas Stars
Vegas Golden Knights
St. Louis Blues
Los Angeles Kings
New York Islanders
Florida Panthers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Anaheim Ducks
New Jersey Devils
San Jose Sharks
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Rangers