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San Jose Sharks vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 17, 2026

NHL matchup

San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 17, 2026.

October 17, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

San Jose Sharks

6-6-1

3
Final
Home

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Detroit Red Wings at 63.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

San Jose Sharks logo
Away team

San Jose Sharks

36.9%
Fair American +171
Fair decimal 2.71
Best market +135 · BetMGM
Market implied 42.6%
Edge -5.7%
Expected value -13.3%
Calculate value
Detroit Red Wings logo
Home team

Detroit Red Wings

63.1%
Fair American -171
Fair decimal 1.58
Best market -139 · BetRivers
Market implied 58.2%
Edge +4.9%
Expected value +8.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

San Jose Sharks

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

85:20 together · 6 games

xG share28.1%
Corsi for / against
55 / 86
Fenwick for / against
39 / 57
Corsi share
39.0%
Fenwick share
40.6%
xG for / against
1.85 / 4.72
All observed combinations

Detroit Red Wings

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

51:16 together · 7 games

xG share63.6%
Corsi for / against
56 / 36
Fenwick for / against
38 / 21
Corsi share
60.9%
Fenwick share
64.4%
xG for / against
2.14 / 1.23
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

San Jose Sharks

Yaroslav Askarov 63.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Yaroslav Askarov?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Prev save pct
-0.679
Goalie team start share
+0.641
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.429
Team win pct before
-0.296
Started last game
+0.241
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Detroit Red Wings

John Gibson 50.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why John Gibson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.757
Team win pct before
+0.458
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.423
Goalie win pct before
-0.298
Started last game
+0.279
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Alex Nedeljkovic

San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 15

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
60
Save %
93.3
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
33.3

Daniil Tarasov

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 15

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
57
Save %
96.5
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
21.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

xG for / game
2.64
xG against / game
3.90
xG differential / game
-1.26

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
3.26
xG differential / game
0.08

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
53.3
Corsi share (%)
45.8
Fenwick share (%)
45.4
Faceoff win %
45.6
Penalties / game
3.57

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 9.6% · Avg distance: 34.9 ft

Detroit Red Wings

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
63.0
Corsi share (%)
52.4
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
4.43

Shots / game: 31.0 · Shooting: 7.4% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
13Points13
0.500Points %0.542
37Goals for33
45Goals against37
-8Goal differential-4
L2Current streakW1
Road versus home
San Jose Sharks SJS road
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET home
8Games7
4Wins3
9Points7
-3Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
4-5-1Record5-2-3
9Points13
28Goals for31
33Goals against32
-5Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

San Jose Sharks SJS 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Detroit Red Wings DET 6 wins
Total goals35 – 42
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game3.5 / 4.2
Shots per game28.2 / 27.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 16, 2026
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 22 - 25 View
Nov 2, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 2 32 - 18 View
Jan 14, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 3 24 - 28 View
Nov 18, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 5 20 - 34 View
Jan 2, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
5 - 3 31 - 27 View
Dec 7, 2023
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 5 36 - 31 View
Jan 24, 2023
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 30 - 35 View
Nov 17, 2022
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
7 - 4 21 - 25 View
Jan 11, 2022
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
2 - 3 19 - 40 View
Jan 4, 2022
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 6 26 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings SJS DET