Skip to content

Edmonton Oilers vs Utah Mammoth prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 17, 2026.

October 17, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-2

6
Final
Home

Utah Mammoth

8-4-0

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Utah Mammoth at 61.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Edmonton Oilers logo
Away team

Edmonton Oilers

38.3%
Fair American +161
Fair decimal 2.61
Best market +122 · Bovada
Market implied 45.0%
Edge -6.7%
Expected value -15.0%
Calculate value
Utah Mammoth logo
Home team

Utah Mammoth

61.7%
Fair American -161
Fair decimal 1.62
Best market -130 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 56.5%
Edge +5.2%
Expected value +9.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 17, 2026.

Utah Mammoth

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
5-2
Net units
2.01
ROI
28.7%

Value Picks

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
2.75
ROI
55.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
1.95
ROI
39.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Edmonton Oilers

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

95:40 together · 7 games

xG share72.4%
Corsi for / against
113 / 58
Fenwick for / against
83 / 46
Corsi share
66.1%
Fenwick share
64.3%
xG for / against
5.44 / 2.07
All observed combinations

Utah Mammoth

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

107:23 together · 8 games

xG share61.3%
Corsi for / against
128 / 80
Fenwick for / against
93 / 57
Corsi share
61.5%
Fenwick share
62.0%
xG for / against
6.33 / 4.00
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Edmonton Oilers

Devon Levi 56.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Devon Levi?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.417
Goalie team start share
+0.351
Team win pct before
-0.336
Started last game
-0.320
Goalie win pct before
+0.299
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Utah Mammoth

Karel Vejmelka 74.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Karel Vejmelka?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.717
Goalie team start share
+0.632
Team win pct before
-0.382
Started last game
-0.256
Goalie win pct before
+0.225
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Devon Levi

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 15

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
137
Save %
89.8
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.8

Karel Vejmelka

Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 15

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
121
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
31.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
2.94
xG against / game
2.53
xG differential / game
0.41

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Utah Mammoth

xG for / game
3.82
xG against / game
2.66
xG differential / game
1.16

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
54.1
Corsi share (%)
49.6
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
53.2
Penalties / game
3.86

Shots / game: 25.0 · Shooting: 17.7% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft

Utah Mammoth

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
67.1
Corsi share (%)
56.2
Fenwick share (%)
56.9
Faceoff win %
51.3
Penalties / game
4.75

Shots / game: 30.5 · Shooting: 12.7% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
18Points16
0.750Points %0.667
52Goals for46
43Goals against40
9Goal differential6
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Edmonton Oilers EDM road
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA home
5Games5
5Wins4
10Points8
14Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
38Goals for36
30Goals against39
8Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Edmonton Oilers EDM 2 wins
4 games reviewed
Utah Mammoth UTA 2 wins
Total goals18 – 15
Goal differential +3 / -3
Goals per game4.5 / 3.75
Shots per game25.0 / 24.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 15, 2026
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
4 - 2 24 - 24 View
Apr 7, 2026
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
5 - 6 26 - 31 View
Mar 24, 2026
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
5 - 2 26 - 18 View
Oct 28, 2025
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 6 23 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings EDM UTA