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New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 17, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 17, 2026.

October 17, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

New York Islanders

5-4-2

4
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-5-2

1 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 66.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Away team

New York Islanders

33.9%
Fair American +195
Fair decimal 2.95
Best market +115 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 46.5%
Edge -12.6%
Expected value -27.1%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

66.1%
Fair American -195
Fair decimal 1.51
Best market -128 · FanDuel
Market implied 56.1%
Edge +10.0%
Expected value +17.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Islanders

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

54:28 together · 7 games

xG share47.9%
Corsi for / against
51 / 55
Fenwick for / against
37 / 42
Corsi share
48.1%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
2.96 / 3.22
Defense pair

66:24 together · 7 games

xG share46.8%
Corsi for / against
61 / 46
Fenwick for / against
36 / 31
Corsi share
57.0%
Fenwick share
53.7%
xG for / against
1.88 / 2.15
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

72:13 together · 8 games

xG share47.5%
Corsi for / against
81 / 79
Fenwick for / against
61 / 62
Corsi share
50.6%
Fenwick share
49.6%
xG for / against
3.33 / 3.69
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin 81.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ilya Sorokin?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.037
Days since last start
+0.463
Started last game
+0.412
Won previous appearance
+0.274
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
+0.266
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Toronto Maple Leafs

Anthony Stolarz 52.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Anthony Stolarz?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
-0.446
Goalie win pct before
+0.411
Team win pct before
+0.306
Prev save pct
-0.299
Started last game
+0.288
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Semyon Varlamov

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 15

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
42
Save %
90.5
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
45.2

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 15

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
164
Save %
89.6
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
36.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.75
xG against / game
3.10
xG differential / game
-0.35

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.00
xG against / game
3.67
xG differential / game
-0.67

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
51.4
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.4
Faceoff win %
53.6
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 25.6 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
46.7
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.12

Shots / game: 27.9 · Shooting: 12.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
12Points16
0.545Points %0.571
32Goals for52
29Goals against46
3Goal differential6
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
New York Islanders NYI road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
5Games8
1Wins4
3Points9
-5Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
5-3-2Record5-3-2
12Points12
31Goals for41
27Goals against35
4Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Islanders NYI 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 3 wins
Total goals32 – 25
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game3.2 / 2.5
Shots per game31.6 / 28.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Sep 30, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 27 - 26 View
Apr 9, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 5 16 - 44 View
Mar 17, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 1 34 - 27 View
Jan 3, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 21 - 25 View
Jan 2, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 1 31 - 33 View
Dec 31, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 3 31 - 25 View
Dec 21, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 34 - 29 View
Feb 5, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 29 - 36 View
Jan 11, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 35 - 30 View
Dec 11, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 40 - 29 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYI TOR