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Vancouver Canucks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 17, 2026.

October 17, 2026 · 3:00 PM CST
Away

Vancouver Canucks

3-10-1

2
Final
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 68.4% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vancouver Canucks logo
Away team

Vancouver Canucks

31.6%
Fair American +216
Fair decimal 3.16
Best market +340 · BetRivers
Market implied 22.7%
Edge +8.9%
Expected value +39.0%
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

68.4%
Fair American -216
Fair decimal 1.46
Best market -356 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 78.1%
Edge -9.7%
Expected value -12.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vancouver Canucks

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

93:40 together · 8 games

xG share38.5%
Corsi for / against
57 / 115
Fenwick for / against
42 / 79
Corsi share
33.1%
Fenwick share
34.7%
xG for / against
3.32 / 5.29
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

83:36 together · 7 games

xG share57.0%
Corsi for / against
96 / 70
Fenwick for / against
67 / 48
Corsi share
57.8%
Fenwick share
58.3%
xG for / against
4.00 / 3.02
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Vancouver Canucks

Leevi Meriläinen 70.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Leevi Meriläinen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.587
Team win pct before
+0.520
Started last game
-0.292
Prev save pct
+0.262
Won previous appearance
-0.211
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy 67.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Andrei Vasilevskiy?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.984
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.441
Team win pct before
-0.409
Started last game
-0.281
Consecutive starts
-0.275
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 17, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Leevi Meriläinen

Vancouver Canucks · Last start: Oct 15

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
92.7
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
34.0

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 15

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
108
Save %
89.8
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
30.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vancouver Canucks

xG for / game
2.47
xG against / game
3.88
xG differential / game
-1.41

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.62
xG differential / game
0.70

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vancouver Canucks

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
47.1
Corsi share (%)
43.2
Fenwick share (%)
42.8
Faceoff win %
47.5
Penalties / game
3.89

Shots / game: 21.9 · Shooting: 14.2% · Avg distance: 33.3 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
62.0
Corsi share (%)
55.4
Fenwick share (%)
55.4
Faceoff win %
45.3
Penalties / game
3.57

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 9.9% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vancouver Canucks VAN
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
7Points15
0.250Points %0.682
43Goals for38
65Goals against34
-22Goal differential4
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Vancouver Canucks VAN road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
8Games5
2Wins5
5Points10
-14Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Vancouver Canucks VAN
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
1-8-1Record7-2-1
3Points15
24Goals for37
47Goals against29
-23Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vancouver Canucks VAN 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 8 wins
Total goals27 – 37
Goal differential -10 / +10
Goals per game2.7 / 3.7
Shots per game28.3 / 29.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 19, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
6 - 2 30 - 21 View
Nov 16, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
6 - 2 18 - 30 View
Dec 8, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 2 33 - 25 View
Oct 15, 2024
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 27 - 27 View
Dec 12, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
1 - 4 29 - 22 View
Oct 19, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 29 - 36 View
Jan 18, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
5 - 2 25 - 39 View
Jan 12, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 5 40 - 35 View
Mar 13, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 1 31 - 36 View
Jan 13, 2022
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 26 - 21 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VAN TBL