Model betting performance

Each simulated bet risks one fixed unit. A win earns decimal odds minus one; a loss costs one unit. ROI equals net units divided by settled units risked. No compounding or variable stakes.

All Model Picks backs the predicted winner. Value Picks backs the higher estimated EV side only when EV is above zero; exact EV ties are skipped. Market Favourite uses the average no-vig home win probability across sportsbooks quoting both teams, then takes that side's best captured price. Tied market probabilities are skipped.

All strategies share the same eligible game pool. Prices come from the latest captured full-game moneyline batch strictly before the scheduled start, using the earlier start if event times differ. Best odds are chosen only within that batch, never from later or mixed captures. Predictions normally must have been published by that capture time. A fixed set of completed 2026-27 games is included retrospectively after testing and fixes overwrote timestamps; individual history entries identify these revisions. Captured prices may not represent actual closing odds or prices available to every bettor.

Only final results with a recorded REG, OT or SO outcome settle bets. Missing results remain pending. Ambiguous event mappings, invalid odds, unpaired markets and unavailable pregame predictions are excluded. Legacy predictions use existing timestamps; earlier overwritten revisions are not invented. The selected season starts at 2026-27.