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New York Rangers vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 6, 2027

NHL matchup

New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 6, 2027.

March 6, 2027 · 3:00 PM MBT
Away

New York Rangers

10-8-1

46.4%
at
Home

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

53.6% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 53.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Rangers logo
Away team

New York Rangers

46.4%
Fair American +116
Fair decimal 2.16
Calculate value
Buffalo Sabres logo
Home team

Buffalo Sabres

53.6%
Fair American -116
Fair decimal 1.87
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 6, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.52
ROI
-12.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 6. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Rangers

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Defense pair

135:06 together · 9 games

xG share59.7%
Corsi for / against
143 / 124
Fenwick for / against
99 / 92
Corsi share
53.6%
Fenwick share
51.8%
xG for / against
6.28 / 4.23
All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Forward trio

64:38 together · 8 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
75 / 69
Fenwick for / against
55 / 57
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
3.74 / 4.14
Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
114 / 106
Fenwick for / against
73 / 74
Corsi share
51.8%
Fenwick share
49.7%
xG for / against
4.43 / 4.32
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 6, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.4

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
123
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
30.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 6, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.37
xG against / game
2.83
xG differential / game
0.54

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
3.72
xG differential / game
-0.37

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 6, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.1
Corsi share (%)
51.4
Fenwick share (%)
51.1
Faceoff win %
54.1
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 29.7 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
43.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 6, 2027.

New York Rangers

J. Miller Hot · +0.56 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.40 points/game
0.84 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
6
Points
7
Shots / game
2.2
W. Cuylle Cold · -0.51 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.51 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.8
A. Fox Hot · +0.50 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.40 points/game
0.90 points/game across 144 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
2.2
V. Gavrikov Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 179 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.6
T. Kartye Cold · -0.34 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.34 points/game across 144 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.7

Buffalo Sabres

J. Zucker Hot · +0.73 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.40 points/game
0.67 points/game across 138 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
5
Points
7
Shots / game
3.4
O. Zellweger Hot · +0.71 P/GP

4 games vs New York Rangers · 1.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
3.0
R. McLeod Hot · +0.59 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.20 points/game
0.61 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
2.0
R. Dahlin Hot · +0.49 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.40 points/game
0.91 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
3.4
Z. Benson Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.00 points/game
0.53 points/game across 153 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
1.8
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
21Points19
0.553Points %0.559
56Goals for50
55Goals against57
1Goal differential-7
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
New York Rangers NYR road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
9Games9
2Wins4
5Points8
-15Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
4-5-1Record5-3-2
9Points12
28Goals for31
34Goals against31
-6Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Rangers NYR 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 6 wins
Total goals27 – 38
Goal differential -11 / +11
Goals per game2.7 / 3.8
Shots per game28.5 / 30.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 8, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 3 27 - 20 View
Jan 8, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 2 21 - 32 View
Oct 9, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 0 33 - 37 View
Feb 22, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 8 28 - 33 View
Dec 11, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 2 28 - 31 View
Nov 7, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers New York Rangers
6 - 1 22 - 26 View
Dec 23, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 4 30 - 33 View
Nov 27, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 1 39 - 26 View
Oct 12, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
5 - 1 31 - 25 View
Apr 10, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 39 - 28 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYR BUF