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Buffalo Sabres vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 1, 2026

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 1, 2026.

December 1, 2026 · 8:00 PM MBT
Away

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

50.0% Model pick
at
Home

Edmonton Oilers

13-3-3

50.0%
Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 50.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Edmonton Oilers logo
Home team

Edmonton Oilers

50.0%
Fair American -100
Fair decimal 2.0
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 1, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.52
ROI
-12.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 1. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
75 / 69
Fenwick for / against
55 / 57
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
3.74 / 4.14
Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
114 / 106
Fenwick for / against
73 / 74
Corsi share
51.8%
Fenwick share
49.7%
xG for / against
4.43 / 4.32
All observed combinations

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

133:51 together · 10 games

xG share43.8%
Corsi for / against
103 / 141
Fenwick for / against
77 / 105
Corsi share
42.2%
Fenwick share
42.3%
xG for / against
4.01 / 5.15
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 1, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Edmonton Oilers

D. Levi
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
8
Save %
0.898
GAA
2.75
T. Jarry
GP
8
Starts
7
Wins
4
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.57
M. Tomkins
GP
2
Starts
2
Wins
1
Save %
0.878
GAA
3.09
B. Epp
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
123
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
30.1

Devon Levi

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
133
Save %
89.5
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
35.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 1, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
3.65
xG differential / game
-0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
2.78
xG against / game
2.83
xG differential / game
-0.05

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 1, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
43.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.9
Corsi share (%)
49.3
Fenwick share (%)
49.3
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 25.9 · Shooting: 13.9% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 1, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

J. Quinn Cold · -0.63 P/GP

4 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 0.00 points/game
0.63 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.8
Z. Benson Cold · -0.56 P/GP

3 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 0.00 points/game
0.56 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
T. Thompson Hot · +0.52 P/GP

4 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 1.50 points/game
0.98 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
3.8
M. Grzelcyk Cold · -0.35 P/GP

4 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 0.00 points/game
0.35 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.5
R. Dahlin Hot · +0.33 P/GP

4 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 1.25 points/game
0.92 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
5
Points
5
Shots / game
2.5

Edmonton Oilers

M. Joseph Hot · +0.76 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.24 points/game across 127 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
0.3
Z. Hyman Cold · -0.73 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.73 points/game across 135 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.8
C. McDavid Cold · -0.72 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
1.72 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
3.0
L. Draisaitl Cold · -0.56 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
1.56 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
4.0
T. Emberson Hot · +0.51 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.67 points/game
0.16 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
0.7
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
19Points29
0.559Points %0.763
50Goals for78
57Goals against56
-7Goal differential22
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM home
8Games11
4Wins6
11Points14
-1Goal differential2
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
5-3-2Record6-2-2
12Points14
31Goals for37
31Goals against29
0Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Edmonton Oilers EDM 4 wins
Total goals30 – 32
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.0 / 3.2
Shots per game29.0 / 35.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 9, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
4 - 3 28 - 30 View
Nov 17, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
1 - 5 33 - 28 View
Mar 10, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 34 - 23 View
Jan 25, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 3 41 - 34 View
Mar 21, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 8 29 - 39 View
Mar 9, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 32 - 27 View
Mar 6, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 2 37 - 39 View
Oct 18, 2022
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
4 - 2 24 - 48 View
Mar 17, 2022
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
1 - 6 28 - 36 View
Nov 12, 2021
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 35 - 23 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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