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New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 8, 2026

NHL matchup

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 8, 2026.

November 8, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

New Jersey Devils

13-5-0

4 Model pick
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

8-9-2

0
Model V2 pick: New Jersey Devils at 57.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New Jersey Devils logo
Away team

New Jersey Devils

57.2%
Fair American -134
Fair decimal 1.75
Best market -153 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 60.5%
Edge -3.3%
Expected value -5.4%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

42.8%
Fair American +134
Fair decimal 2.34
Best market +136 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 42.4%
Edge +0.4%
Expected value +1.0%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 8, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New Jersey Devils

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

110:10 together · 10 games

xG share61.7%
Corsi for / against
137 / 86
Fenwick for / against
100 / 61
Corsi share
61.4%
Fenwick share
62.1%
xG for / against
6.67 / 4.14
Defense pair

165:11 together · 10 games

xG share54.1%
Corsi for / against
149 / 142
Fenwick for / against
102 / 103
Corsi share
51.2%
Fenwick share
49.8%
xG for / against
6.70 / 5.69
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

68:48 together · 8 games

xG share53.0%
Corsi for / against
83 / 75
Fenwick for / against
65 / 58
Corsi share
52.5%
Fenwick share
52.8%
xG for / against
4.36 / 3.86
Defense pair

122:33 together · 10 games

xG share41.8%
Corsi for / against
108 / 137
Fenwick for / against
84 / 97
Corsi share
44.1%
Fenwick share
46.4%
xG for / against
4.37 / 6.07
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

New Jersey Devils

Connor Hellebuyck 95.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Connor Hellebuyck?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.255
Started last game
+0.397
Goalie team start share
-0.366
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.356
Goalie win pct before
+0.335
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Toronto Maple Leafs

Anthony Stolarz 52.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Anthony Stolarz?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.483
Started last game
+0.375
Days since last start
+0.286
Goalie win pct before
+0.258
Goalie team start share
-0.245
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 8, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jake Allen

New Jersey Devils · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
140
Save %
87.9
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
30.7

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
86.2
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
29.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New Jersey Devils

xG for / game
3.37
xG against / game
2.39
xG differential / game
0.98

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
2.96
xG against / game
3.12
xG differential / game
-0.15

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New Jersey Devils

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
65.0
Corsi share (%)
56.4
Fenwick share (%)
56.3
Faceoff win %
49.3
Penalties / game
2.1

Shots / game: 32.8 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.0
Corsi share (%)
47.8
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
52.2
Penalties / game
4.5

Shots / game: 28.5 · Shooting: 12.6% · Avg distance: 34.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 8, 2026.

New Jersey Devils

D. Hamilton Cold · -0.57 P/GP

5 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 0.00 points/game
0.57 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.6
A. Gritsyuk Hot · +0.49 P/GP

3 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 1.00 points/game
0.51 points/game across 80 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.0
S. Noesen Cold · -0.43 P/GP

3 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 0.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 118 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
L. Evangelista Hot · +0.41 P/GP

4 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 1.00 points/game
0.59 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
2.0
A. Mantha Cold · -0.41 P/GP

3 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 0.33 points/game
0.74 points/game across 108 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.0

Toronto Maple Leafs

D. Raddysh Hot · +0.71 P/GP

5 games vs New Jersey Devils · 1.40 points/game
0.69 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
3
Points
7
Shots / game
1.8
J. Roslovic Hot · +0.66 P/GP

5 games vs New Jersey Devils · 1.20 points/game
0.54 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
3
Points
6
Shots / game
2.2
N. Paul Hot · +0.59 P/GP

4 games vs New Jersey Devils · 1.00 points/game
0.41 points/game across 141 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.5
M. Rielly Cold · -0.52 P/GP

5 games vs New Jersey Devils · 0.00 points/game
0.52 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.2
A. Matthews Cold · -0.30 P/GP

5 games vs New Jersey Devils · 0.80 points/game
1.10 points/game across 140 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
1
Points
4
Shots / game
4.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New Jersey Devils NJD
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
26Points18
0.722Points %0.474
66Goals for64
51Goals against64
15Goal differential0
W5Current streakL3
Road versus home
New Jersey Devils NJD road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
8Games11
5Wins4
10Points9
2Goal differential-8
Last 10 games
New Jersey Devils NJD
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
9-1-0Record5-5-0
18Points10
41Goals for35
24Goals against32
17Goal differential3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New Jersey Devils NJD 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
Total goals32 – 36
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game3.2 / 3.6
Shots per game29.9 / 30.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 4, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
3 - 4 27 - 47 View
Dec 30, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 4 33 - 30 View
Oct 21, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 35 - 25 View
Jan 16, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 24 - 41 View
Dec 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
2 - 1 17 - 39 View
Oct 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
4 - 2 22 - 23 View
Apr 11, 2024
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 5 20 - 32 View
Apr 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
5 - 2 39 - 20 View
Mar 26, 2024
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 25 - 45 View
Mar 7, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
4 - 3 25 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NJD TOR