Skip to content

Edmonton Oilers vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 15, 2027

NHL matchup

Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 15, 2027.

March 15, 2027 · 8:30 PM MBT
Away

Edmonton Oilers

13-3-3

40.3%
at
Home

Colorado Avalanche

11-6-2

59.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 59.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Edmonton Oilers logo
Away team

Edmonton Oilers

40.3%
Fair American +148
Fair decimal 2.48
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

59.7%
Fair American -148
Fair decimal 1.68
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 15, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Edmonton Oilers

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Defense pair

117:07 together · 9 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
95 / 125
Fenwick for / against
73 / 93
Corsi share
43.2%
Fenwick share
44.0%
xG for / against
3.51 / 4.76
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

93:41 together · 10 games

xG share58.4%
Corsi for / against
111 / 80
Fenwick for / against
88 / 62
Corsi share
58.1%
Fenwick share
58.7%
xG for / against
6.90 / 4.92
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 15, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Edmonton Oilers

D. Levi
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
8
Save %
0.898
GAA
2.75
T. Jarry
GP
9
Starts
8
Wins
5
Save %
0.908
GAA
2.50
M. Tomkins
GP
2
Starts
2
Wins
1
Save %
0.878
GAA
3.09
B. Epp
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Devon Levi

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
135
Save %
89.6
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
36.3

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
121
Save %
90.9
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
2.77
xG against / game
2.77
xG differential / game
0.00

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.16
xG against / game
3.01
xG differential / game
0.14

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.9
Corsi share (%)
49.3
Fenwick share (%)
49.2
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 25.9 · Shooting: 13.9% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.7
Corsi share (%)
52.6
Fenwick share (%)
51.9
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 13.1% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 15, 2027.

Edmonton Oilers

C. McDavid Cold · -0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.20 points/game
1.72 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
4.2
J. Walman Cold · -0.49 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.49 points/game across 124 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.2
Z. Hyman Cold · -0.39 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.33 points/game
0.72 points/game across 137 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
3.0
M. Ekholm Cold · -0.32 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.20 points/game
0.52 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.4
J. Dickinson Cold · -0.27 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.27 points/game across 128 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.6

Colorado Avalanche

D. Toews Hot · +0.69 P/GP

5 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 1.20 points/game
0.51 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
6
Points
6
Shots / game
1.8
N. MacKinnon Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 2.00 points/game
1.53 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
5
Assists
5
Points
10
Shots / game
3.8
P. Kelly Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 0.80 points/game
0.33 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.8
J. Manson Cold · -0.36 P/GP

3 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 0.00 points/game
0.36 points/game across 137 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.7
A. Lehkonen Hot · +0.31 P/GP

4 games vs Edmonton Oilers · 1.00 points/game
0.69 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
3.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
29Points24
0.763Points %0.632
78Goals for78
56Goals against59
22Goal differential19
W2Current streakW2
Road versus home
Edmonton Oilers EDM road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
8Games10
7Wins7
15Points16
20Goal differential20
Last 10 games
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
6-2-2Record6-3-1
14Points13
37Goals for40
29Goals against32
8Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Edmonton Oilers EDM 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 5 wins
Total goals29 – 34
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game2.9 / 3.4
Shots per game31.3 / 30.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 13, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 1 31 - 31 View
Mar 10, 2026
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 24 - 29 View
Nov 8, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
9 - 1 34 - 24 View
Feb 7, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 4 31 - 27 View
Jan 16, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 28 - 25 View
Nov 30, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 1 32 - 28 View
Apr 18, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 5 26 - 27 View
Apr 5, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 6 24 - 47 View
Mar 16, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 2 43 - 34 View
Apr 11, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 1 40 - 29 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings EDM COL