Colorado Avalanche vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | January 14, 2027

January 14, 2027 · 7:30 PM MBT

Away

Colorado Avalanche

11-6-2

55.8% Model pick

Home

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

44.2%

Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 55.8%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Colorado Avalanche

55.8%

Fair American -126

Fair decimal 1.79

Calculate value

Home team

Buffalo Sabres

44.2%

Fair American +126

Fair decimal 2.26

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 14, 2027.

Colorado Avalanche

All Model Picks

Bets: 18
Record: 11-7
Net units: -0.95
ROI: -5.3%

Value Picks

Bets: 3
Record: 2-1
Net units: 0.68
ROI: 22.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 18
Record: 11-7
Net units: -0.95
ROI: -5.3%

Full team betting results

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets: 12
Record: 6-6
Net units: -1.52
ROI: -12.7%

Value Picks

Bets: 6
Record: 1-5
Net units: -4.07
ROI: -67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 9
Record: 6-3
Net units: 1.24
ROI: 13.8%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 14. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

106:59 together · 10 games

xG share49.2%

Corsi for / against: 128 / 104
Fenwick for / against: 90 / 79
Corsi share: 55.2%
Fenwick share: 53.3%
xG for / against: 6.28 / 6.49

Defense pair

93:41 together · 10 games

xG share58.4%

Corsi for / against: 111 / 80
Fenwick for / against: 88 / 62
Corsi share: 58.1%
Fenwick share: 58.7%
xG for / against: 6.90 / 4.92

All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%

Corsi for / against: 75 / 69
Fenwick for / against: 55 / 57
Corsi share: 52.1%
Fenwick share: 49.1%
xG for / against: 3.74 / 4.14

Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%

Corsi for / against: 114 / 106
Fenwick for / against: 73 / 74
Corsi share: 51.8%
Fenwick share: 49.7%
xG for / against: 4.43 / 4.32

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Buffalo Sabres

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 14, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Colorado Avalanche

M. Blackwood

GP: 15
Starts: 14
Wins: 10
Save %: 0.901
GAA: 2.63

S. Wedgewood

GP: 5
Starts: 5
Wins: 1
Save %: 0.867
GAA: 4.02

Buffalo Sabres

U. Luukkonen

GP: 11
Starts: 10
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.878
GAA: 3.27

C. Ellis

GP: 7
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.884
GAA: 3.09

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 121
Save %: 90.9
Goals allowed: 11
Close-range shots %: 33.9

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 123
Save %: 88.6
Goals allowed: 14
Close-range shots %: 30.1

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 14, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game: 3.16
xG against / game: 3.01
xG differential / game: 0.14

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game: 3.32
xG against / game: 3.65
xG differential / game: -0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 14, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 62.7
Corsi share (%): 52.6
Fenwick share (%): 51.9
Faceoff win %: 48.9
Penalties / game: 4.0

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 13.1% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 60.2
Corsi share (%): 50.5
Fenwick share (%): 49.6
Faceoff win %: 43.4
Penalties / game: 4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 14, 2027.

Colorado Avalanche

N. Kadri Hot · +1.29 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.00 points/game
0.71 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 6
Points: 8
Shots / game: 3.3

M. Necas Hot · +1.18 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.33 points/game
1.16 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 4
Points: 7
Shots / game: 2.0

D. Toews Hot · +0.74 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.25 points/game
0.51 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 4
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.3

N. MacKinnon Hot · +0.73 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.25 points/game
1.52 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 4
Assists: 5
Points: 9
Shots / game: 6.3

B. Nelson Cold · -0.55 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.20 points/game
0.75 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Points: 1
Shots / game: 3.0

Buffalo Sabres

T. Thompson Hot · +1.04 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 2.00 points/game
0.96 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals: 4
Assists: 4
Points: 8
Shots / game: 4.5

J. Zucker Hot · +1.00 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.67 points/game
0.67 points/game across 140 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.3

S. Carrick Hot · +0.79 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.00 points/game
0.21 points/game across 158 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 2
Points: 4
Shots / game: 1.3

R. McLeod Cold · -0.64 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.64 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.5

J.Kulich Cold · -0.40 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 81 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 2.3

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

COL	Metric	BUF
24	Points	19
0.632	Points %	0.559
78	Goals for	50
59	Goals against	57
19	Goal differential	-7
W2	Current streak	L1

Road versus home

COL road	Metric	BUF home
9	Games	9
4	Wins	4
8	Points	8
-1	Goal differential	-6

Last 10 games

COL	Metric	BUF
6-3-1	Record	5-3-2
13	Points	12
40	Goals for	31
32	Goals against	31
8	Goal differential	0

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

COL 8 wins

10 games reviewed

BUF 2 wins

Total goals42 – 30

Goal differential +12 / -12

Goals per game4.2 / 3.0

Shots per game34.0 / 27.1

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Nov 13, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	3 - 6	21 - 34	View
Oct 13, 2025	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	3 - 1	37 - 28	View
Jan 2, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	5 - 6	21 - 29	View
Dec 3, 2024	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	5 - 4	41 - 30	View
Dec 13, 2023	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	1 - 5	30 - 29	View
Oct 29, 2023	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	0 - 4	23 - 29	View
Dec 15, 2022	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	4 - 2	21 - 41	View
Dec 1, 2022	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	6 - 4	34 - 28	View
Feb 19, 2022	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	5 - 3	36 - 32	View
Jan 30, 2022	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	1 - 4	31 - 36	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Colorado Avalanche vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 14, 2027

Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres

Colorado Avalanche

Buffalo Sabres

Model V2 versus market

Colorado Avalanche

Buffalo Sabres

Team performance leading into this game

Colorado Avalanche

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Colorado Avalanche

Buffalo Sabres

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Colorado Avalanche

Buffalo Sabres

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Colorado Avalanche

Buffalo Sabres

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games