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Buffalo Sabres vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 28, 2027

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 28, 2027.

January 28, 2027 · 10:00 PM MBT
Away

Buffalo Sabres

8-7-3

44.0%
at
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

13-5-2

56.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 56.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Buffalo Sabres logo
Away team

Buffalo Sabres

44.0%
Fair American +127
Fair decimal 2.27
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

56.0%
Fair American -127
Fair decimal 1.79
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 28, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.52
ROI
-12.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

65:08 together · 9 games

xG share46.1%
Corsi for / against
75 / 70
Fenwick for / against
55 / 58
Corsi share
51.7%
Fenwick share
48.7%
xG for / against
3.74 / 4.38
Defense pair

117:48 together · 9 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
124 / 112
Fenwick for / against
83 / 78
Corsi share
52.5%
Fenwick share
51.6%
xG for / against
4.93 / 4.86
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:32 together · 10 games

xG share43.3%
Corsi for / against
53 / 61
Fenwick for / against
37 / 40
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
48.1%
xG for / against
1.93 / 2.53
Defense pair

152:24 together · 10 games

xG share59.4%
Corsi for / against
134 / 138
Fenwick for / against
104 / 94
Corsi share
49.3%
Fenwick share
52.5%
xG for / against
7.43 / 5.09
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 28, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
11
Starts
10
Wins
6
Save %
0.896
GAA
2.53
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 11

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
87.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
38.5

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 11

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
111
Save %
87.4
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
22.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.34
xG against / game
3.72
xG differential / game
-0.39

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.97
xG against / game
2.89
xG differential / game
0.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 28, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.3
Corsi share (%)
51.1
Fenwick share (%)
50.4
Faceoff win %
44.0
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.9
Corsi share (%)
46.9
Fenwick share (%)
49.9
Faceoff win %
49.0
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 27.2 · Shooting: 9.9% · Avg distance: 34.6 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 28, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

J. Quinn Cold · -0.63 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.63 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.8
T. Thompson Cold · -0.61 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.40 points/game
1.01 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.8
Z. Benson Cold · -0.56 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.56 points/game across 153 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.2
J. Norris Cold · -0.45 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.20 points/game
0.65 points/game across 113 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.8
J.Kulich Cold · -0.40 P/GP

3 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 81 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0

Vegas Golden Knights

M. Stone Cold · -0.61 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.50 points/game
1.11 points/game across 142 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
V. Olofsson Cold · -0.50 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.50 points/game across 137 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.5
B. Bowman Cold · -0.46 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.46 points/game across 71 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.7
P. Wotherspoon Hot · +0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.60 points/game
0.25 points/game across 136 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
0.6
R. Andersson Hot · +0.34 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.80 points/game
0.46 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.6
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
19Points28
0.528Points %0.700
53Goals for69
65Goals against54
-12Goal differential15
L2Current streakW4
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
8Games10
4Wins7
11Points14
-1Goal differential10
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
4-4-2Record5-3-2
10Points12
29Goals for27
35Goals against30
-6Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 3 wins
Total goals33 – 26
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game3.3 / 2.6
Shots per game28.2 / 30.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 8, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 1 26 - 29 View
Mar 17, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 0 25 - 28 View
Mar 3, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 29 - 28 View
Mar 15, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 4 19 - 37 View
Jan 4, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 3 24 - 33 View
Mar 2, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 7 24 - 35 View
Dec 15, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 2 27 - 35 View
Dec 19, 2022
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 2 18 - 43 View
Nov 10, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
7 - 4 36 - 35 View
Mar 10, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
1 - 3 31 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BUF VGK