Buffalo Sabres vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | January 30, 2027

January 30, 2027 · 5:00 PM MBT

Away

Buffalo Sabres

8-7-3

37.6%

Home

Colorado Avalanche

11-6-2

62.4% Model pick

Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 62.4%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Buffalo Sabres

37.6%

Fair American +166

Fair decimal 2.66

Calculate value

Home team

Colorado Avalanche

62.4%

Fair American -166

Fair decimal 1.6

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 30, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets: 12
Record: 6-6
Net units: -1.52
ROI: -12.7%

Value Picks

Bets: 6
Record: 1-5
Net units: -4.07
ROI: -67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 9
Record: 6-3
Net units: 1.24
ROI: 13.8%

Full team betting results

Colorado Avalanche

All Model Picks

Bets: 18
Record: 11-7
Net units: -0.95
ROI: -5.3%

Value Picks

Bets: 3
Record: 2-1
Net units: 0.68
ROI: 22.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 18
Record: 11-7
Net units: -0.95
ROI: -5.3%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

65:08 together · 9 games

xG share46.1%

Corsi for / against: 75 / 70
Fenwick for / against: 55 / 58
Corsi share: 51.7%
Fenwick share: 48.7%
xG for / against: 3.74 / 4.38

Defense pair

117:48 together · 9 games

xG share50.4%

Corsi for / against: 124 / 112
Fenwick for / against: 83 / 78
Corsi share: 52.5%
Fenwick share: 51.6%
xG for / against: 4.93 / 4.86

All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

106:59 together · 10 games

xG share49.2%

Corsi for / against: 128 / 104
Fenwick for / against: 90 / 79
Corsi share: 55.2%
Fenwick share: 53.3%
xG for / against: 6.28 / 6.49

Defense pair

93:41 together · 10 games

xG share58.4%

Corsi for / against: 111 / 80
Fenwick for / against: 88 / 62
Corsi share: 58.1%
Fenwick share: 58.7%
xG for / against: 6.90 / 4.92

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Colorado Avalanche

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 30, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Buffalo Sabres

U. Luukkonen

GP: 12
Starts: 11
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.867
GAA: 3.51

C. Ellis

GP: 8
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.873
GAA: 3.39

Colorado Avalanche

M. Blackwood

GP: 15
Starts: 14
Wins: 10
Save %: 0.901
GAA: 2.63

S. Wedgewood

GP: 5
Starts: 5
Wins: 1
Save %: 0.867
GAA: 4.02

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 11

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 130
Save %: 87.7
Goals allowed: 16
Close-range shots %: 38.5

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 121
Save %: 90.9
Goals allowed: 11
Close-range shots %: 33.9

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game: 3.34
xG against / game: 3.72
xG differential / game: -0.39

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game: 3.16
xG against / game: 3.01
xG differential / game: 0.14

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 60.3
Corsi share (%): 51.1
Fenwick share (%): 50.4
Faceoff win %: 44.0
Penalties / game: 4.3

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 62.7
Corsi share (%): 52.6
Fenwick share (%): 51.9
Faceoff win %: 48.9
Penalties / game: 4.0

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 13.1% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 30, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

T. Thompson Hot · +1.04 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 2.00 points/game
0.96 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals: 4
Assists: 4
Points: 8
Shots / game: 4.5

J. Zucker Hot · +0.99 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.67 points/game
0.67 points/game across 141 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.3

S. Carrick Hot · +0.79 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.00 points/game
0.21 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 2
Points: 4
Shots / game: 1.3

R. McLeod Cold · -0.65 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.65 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.5

J.Kulich Cold · -0.40 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 81 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 2.3

Colorado Avalanche

N. Kadri Hot · +1.29 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.00 points/game
0.71 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 6
Points: 8
Shots / game: 3.3

M. Necas Hot · +1.18 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.33 points/game
1.16 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 4
Points: 7
Shots / game: 2.0

D. Toews Hot · +0.74 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.25 points/game
0.51 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 4
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.3

N. MacKinnon Hot · +0.73 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.25 points/game
1.52 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 4
Assists: 5
Points: 9
Shots / game: 6.3

B. Nelson Cold · -0.55 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.20 points/game
0.75 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Points: 1
Shots / game: 3.0

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

BUF	Metric	COL
19	Points	24
0.528	Points %	0.632
53	Goals for	78
65	Goals against	59
-12	Goal differential	19
L2	Current streak	W2

Road versus home

BUF road	Metric	COL home
8	Games	10
4	Wins	7
11	Points	16
-1	Goal differential	20

Last 10 games

BUF	Metric	COL
4-4-2	Record	6-3-1
10	Points	13
29	Goals for	40
35	Goals against	32
-6	Goal differential	8

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

BUF 2 wins

10 games reviewed

COL 8 wins

Total goals30 – 42

Goal differential -12 / +12

Goals per game3.0 / 4.2

Shots per game27.1 / 34.0

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Nov 13, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	3 - 6	21 - 34	View
Oct 13, 2025	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	3 - 1	37 - 28	View
Jan 2, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	5 - 6	21 - 29	View
Dec 3, 2024	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	5 - 4	41 - 30	View
Dec 13, 2023	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	1 - 5	30 - 29	View
Oct 29, 2023	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	0 - 4	23 - 29	View
Dec 15, 2022	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	4 - 2	21 - 41	View
Dec 1, 2022	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	6 - 4	34 - 28	View
Feb 19, 2022	Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres	5 - 3	36 - 32	View
Jan 30, 2022	Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche	1 - 4	31 - 36	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Buffalo Sabres vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 30, 2027

Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche

Buffalo Sabres

Colorado Avalanche

Model V2 versus market

Buffalo Sabres

Colorado Avalanche

Team performance leading into this game

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Colorado Avalanche

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Buffalo Sabres

Colorado Avalanche

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Buffalo Sabres

Colorado Avalanche

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Buffalo Sabres

Colorado Avalanche

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games