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Winnipeg Jets vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 5, 2026

NHL matchup

Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 5, 2026.

December 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Winnipeg Jets

7-8-3

38.6%
at
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

61.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 61.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

61.4%
Fair American -159
Fair decimal 1.63
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 5, 2026.

Winnipeg Jets

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
2-4
Net units
-2.59
ROI
-43.1%

Value Picks

Bets
10
Record
3-7
Net units
-2.56
ROI
-25.6%

Market Favourite

Bets
5
Record
2-3
Net units
-1.59
ROI
-31.7%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

56:32 together · 10 games

xG share52.1%
Corsi for / against
54 / 58
Fenwick for / against
41 / 44
Corsi share
48.2%
Fenwick share
48.2%
xG for / against
3.16 / 2.90
Defense pair

139:31 together · 10 games

xG share58.7%
Corsi for / against
146 / 86
Fenwick for / against
112 / 65
Corsi share
62.9%
Fenwick share
63.3%
xG for / against
6.88 / 4.85
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 5, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Stuart Skinner

Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
107
Save %
82.2
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
38.3

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Winnipeg Jets

xG for / game
3.27
xG against / game
3.50
xG differential / game
-0.23

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.0
Corsi share (%)
50.3
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
47.0
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.4 · Shooting: 9.2% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 5, 2026.

Winnipeg Jets

D. Mercer Cold · -0.48 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
M. Barron Cold · -0.30 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.30 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.6
D. Samberg Cold · -0.29 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 140 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
C. Koepke Cold · -0.25 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.25 points/game across 149 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
C. Perfetti Hot · +0.24 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.80 points/game
0.56 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
1
Points
4
Shots / game
1.4

Vegas Golden Knights

R. Andersson Hot · +0.55 P/GP

5 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 1.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
4.2
P. Wotherspoon Hot · +0.41 P/GP

3 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.67 points/game
0.25 points/game across 138 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.7
T. Hertl Cold · -0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.40 points/game
0.78 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
3.2
M. Marner Cold · -0.34 P/GP

5 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.80 points/game
1.14 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
2.8
N. Dowd Cold · -0.30 P/GP

5 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.00 points/game
0.30 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Winnipeg Jets WPG
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
17Points26
0.472Points %0.684
49Goals for64
63Goals against51
-14Goal differential13
W3Current streakW3
Road versus home
Winnipeg Jets WPG road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
9Games9
3Wins6
8Points12
-12Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Winnipeg Jets WPG
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
3-6-1Record5-3-2
7Points12
26Goals for28
39Goals against29
-13Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Winnipeg Jets WPG 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 8 wins
Total goals29 – 38
Goal differential -9 / +9
Goals per game2.9 / 3.8
Shots per game27.5 / 30.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 13, 2026
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 6 23 - 38 View
Mar 24, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
1 - 4 27 - 21 View
Jan 6, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 3 31 - 20 View
Apr 3, 2025
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 0 22 - 26 View
Dec 12, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
3 - 2 36 - 20 View
Nov 29, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 25 - 30 View
Mar 28, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 1 27 - 40 View
Nov 2, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5 31 - 26 View
Oct 19, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
5 - 3 27 - 39 View
Dec 13, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
6 - 5 33 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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