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Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 18, 2027

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 18, 2027.

March 18, 2027 · 6:30 PM MBT
Away

Washington Capitals

8-5-0

48.8%
at
Home

Buffalo Sabres

7-4-3

51.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 51.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

48.8%
Fair American +105
Fair decimal 2.05
Calculate value
Buffalo Sabres logo
Home team

Buffalo Sabres

51.2%
Fair American -105
Fair decimal 1.95
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 18, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
9
Record
5-4
Net units
-0.11
ROI
-1.3%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
7
Record
5-2
Net units
1.65
ROI
23.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

72:01 together · 9 games

xG share61.8%
Corsi for / against
82 / 69
Fenwick for / against
59 / 47
Corsi share
54.3%
Fenwick share
55.7%
xG for / against
4.57 / 2.83
Defense pair

78:32 together · 10 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
64 / 96
Fenwick for / against
51 / 73
Corsi share
40.0%
Fenwick share
41.1%
xG for / against
3.24 / 4.39
All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

67:30 together · 10 games

xG share71.9%
Corsi for / against
71 / 36
Fenwick for / against
48 / 28
Corsi share
66.4%
Fenwick share
63.2%
xG for / against
4.09 / 1.60
Defense pair

89:42 together · 7 games

xG share55.1%
Corsi for / against
89 / 84
Fenwick for / against
62 / 57
Corsi share
51.4%
Fenwick share
52.1%
xG for / against
3.93 / 3.21
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 18, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Nov 1

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
143
Save %
89.5
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
27.3

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 31

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
154
Save %
89.0
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
40.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
0.48

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.09
xG against / game
3.88
xG differential / game
-0.79

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
48.3
Fenwick share (%)
50.2
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
47.4
Fenwick share (%)
46.8
Faceoff win %
45.7
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 28.5 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 18, 2027.

Washington Capitals

J. Chychrun Hot · +0.74 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.40 points/game
0.66 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
3
Points
7
Shots / game
3.2
D. Strome Hot · +0.55 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.40 points/game
0.85 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
3
Points
7
Shots / game
4.0
J. Brodzinski Cold · -0.34 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.34 points/game across 105 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
A. Beauvillier Cold · -0.33 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.33 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.2
M. Fehérváry Hot · +0.29 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.60 points/game
0.31 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.2

Buffalo Sabres

O. Zellweger Hot · +0.44 P/GP

4 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.75 points/game
0.31 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.8
T. Thompson Cold · -0.41 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.60 points/game
1.01 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
0
Points
3
Shots / game
4.0
J. Quinn Hot · +0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.00 points/game
0.60 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Shots / game
2.6
Z. Benson Cold · -0.36 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.20 points/game
0.56 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.6
R. Dahlin Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.60 points/game
0.95 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.8
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
16Points17
0.615Points %0.607
44Goals for43
42Goals against49
2Goal differential-6
L1Current streakW3
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
4Games6
2Wins3
4Points6
0Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
6-4-0Record5-2-3
12Points13
33Goals for33
34Goals against34
-1Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 5 wins
Total goals35 – 37
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.5 / 3.7
Shots per game28.6 / 26.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 24, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 4 21 - 34 View
Apr 4, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 6 39 - 28 View
Mar 12, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 1 22 - 30 View
Nov 1, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 4 34 - 24 View
Mar 30, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
8 - 5 23 - 29 View
Jan 6, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 4 28 - 27 View
Dec 14, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 21 - 31 View
Apr 11, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 4 24 - 17 View
Apr 2, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 6 26 - 35 View
Nov 22, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 4 27 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings WSH BUF