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Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 12, 2026.

December 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

43.2%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

8-9-2

56.8% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 56.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

43.2%
Fair American +131
Fair decimal 2.31
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

56.8%
Fair American -131
Fair decimal 1.76
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 12, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

68:48 together · 8 games

xG share53.0%
Corsi for / against
83 / 75
Fenwick for / against
65 / 58
Corsi share
52.5%
Fenwick share
52.8%
xG for / against
4.36 / 3.86
Defense pair

124:40 together · 10 games

xG share40.6%
Corsi for / against
119 / 134
Fenwick for / against
91 / 99
Corsi share
47.0%
Fenwick share
47.9%
xG for / against
4.43 / 6.48
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 12, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
154
Save %
90.9
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
2.83
xG against / game
3.15
xG differential / game
-0.32

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.8
Corsi share (%)
48.5
Fenwick share (%)
50.2
Faceoff win %
51.2
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 27.9 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 34.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 12, 2026.

Vegas Golden Knights

J. Eichel Hot · +0.80 P/GP

5 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 2.00 points/game
1.20 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
6
Points
10
Shots / game
4.6
M. Stone Hot · +0.67 P/GP

4 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 1.75 points/game
1.08 points/game across 141 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
3
Points
7
Shots / game
3.0
S. Theodore Cold · -0.67 P/GP

4 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 0.00 points/game
0.67 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3
N. Dowd Hot · +0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 0.80 points/game
0.27 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.0
V. Olofsson Cold · -0.48 P/GP

3 games vs Toronto Maple Leafs · 0.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 137 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3

Toronto Maple Leafs

K. Marchenko Cold · -0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.40 points/game
0.93 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.8
A. Matthews Cold · -0.34 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.75 points/game
1.09 points/game across 142 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
3.3
D. Raddysh Cold · -0.32 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.40 points/game
0.72 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.0
D. Joshua Cold · -0.29 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 112 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
J. Tavares Hot · +0.29 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.20 points/game
0.91 points/game across 161 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
4
Points
6
Shots / game
1.4
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
26Points18
0.684Points %0.474
64Goals for64
51Goals against64
13Goal differential0
W3Current streakL3
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
10Games11
6Wins4
14Points9
5Goal differential-8
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
5-3-2Record5-5-0
12Points10
28Goals for35
29Goals against32
-1Goal differential3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 3 wins
Total goals40 – 33
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game4.0 / 3.3
Shots per game30.8 / 27.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 8, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 24 - 43 View
Jan 23, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 31 - 21 View
Jan 15, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 6 28 - 33 View
Mar 5, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5 31 - 25 View
Nov 20, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 3 31 - 26 View
Feb 27, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 2 32 - 30 View
Feb 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
7 - 3 42 - 26 View
Nov 8, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 3 20 - 31 View
Oct 24, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 3 23 - 33 View
Jan 11, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 18 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK TOR