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Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 20, 2027

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 20, 2027.

February 20, 2027 · 8:00 PM MBT
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

48.0%
at
Home

Dallas Stars

10-5-2

52.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Dallas Stars at 52.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

48.0%
Fair American +108
Fair decimal 2.08
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 20, 2027.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-14.3%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
15
Record
9-6
Net units
-0.62
ROI
-4.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

53:27 together · 10 games

xG share53.8%
Corsi for / against
39 / 43
Fenwick for / against
29 / 23
Corsi share
47.6%
Fenwick share
55.8%
xG for / against
2.03 / 1.74
Defense pair

81:03 together · 8 games

xG share69.2%
Corsi for / against
92 / 57
Fenwick for / against
63 / 31
Corsi share
61.7%
Fenwick share
67.0%
xG for / against
4.74 / 2.11
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Feb 20, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
112
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.45
xG against / game
2.68
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.0
Corsi share (%)
51.2
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
58.4
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 27.2 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Feb 20, 2027.

Vegas Golden Knights

N. Hanifin Cold · -0.45 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
M. Stone Hot · +0.31 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 1.40 points/game
1.09 points/game across 140 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
7
Points
7
Shots / game
1.6
N. Dowd Cold · -0.30 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.30 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.2
B. Howden Cold · -0.25 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.20 points/game
0.45 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.0
J. Eichel Cold · -0.23 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 1.00 points/game
1.23 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
1
Points
5
Shots / game
2.4

Dallas Stars

W. Johnston Hot · +0.65 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.60 points/game
0.95 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
5
Assists
3
Points
8
Shots / game
3.2
T. Harley Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.20 points/game
0.60 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
0.8
R. Hintz Hot · +0.40 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.25 points/game
0.85 points/game across 142 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
2.0
C. Blackwell Hot · +0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.60 points/game
0.21 points/game across 141 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.0
J. Robertson Cold · -0.29 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.80 points/game
1.09 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
26Points22
0.684Points %0.647
64Goals for49
51Goals against41
13Goal differential8
W3Current streakW1
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
10Games10
6Wins6
14Points12
5Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
5-3-2Record7-2-1
12Points15
28Goals for33
29Goals against28
-1Goal differential5
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 5 wins
Total goals29 – 25
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game2.9 / 2.5
Shots per game26.5 / 25.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 22, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 33 - 15 View
Mar 10, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 2 27 - 16 View
Jan 29, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 4 27 - 21 View
Jan 28, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 28 - 28 View
Jan 24, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 4 21 - 27 View
Dec 6, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 3 40 - 28 View
Dec 9, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
6 - 1 27 - 20 View
Nov 22, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 1 26 - 32 View
Oct 17, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 3 26 - 34 View
Apr 8, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 2 20 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK DAL