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Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 4, 2027

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 4, 2027.

January 4, 2027 · 9:00 PM MBT
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

33.0%
at
Home

Colorado Avalanche

10-6-2

67.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 67.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

33.0%
Fair American +203
Fair decimal 3.03
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

67.0%
Fair American -203
Fair decimal 1.49
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 4, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:15 together · 10 games

xG share55.4%
Corsi for / against
122 / 82
Fenwick for / against
92 / 64
Corsi share
59.8%
Fenwick share
59.0%
xG for / against
6.39 / 5.15
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 4, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
35.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.09
xG differential / game
-0.03

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.6
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.7
Faceoff win %
48.4
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 30.4 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 4, 2027.

Vegas Golden Knights

M. Marner Hot · +0.28 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.40 points/game
1.12 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
2.4
B. Howden Cold · -0.25 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.20 points/game
0.45 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.6
A. Holtz Hot · +0.25 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.50 points/game
0.25 points/game across 79 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.5
T. Hertl Hot · +0.24 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.00 points/game
0.76 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
1.8
N. Hanifin Hot · +0.18 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.60 points/game
0.42 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.6

Colorado Avalanche

N. MacKinnon Cold · -0.56 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
1.56 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
6.6
A. Lehkonen Cold · -0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.20 points/game
0.72 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.8
J. Schwartz Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.20 points/game
0.60 points/game across 143 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.4
P. Kelly Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.35 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
C. Makar Cold · -0.33 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.80 points/game
1.13 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.6
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
26Points22
0.684Points %0.611
64Goals for72
51Goals against56
13Goal differential16
W3Current streakW1
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
10Games10
6Wins7
14Points16
5Goal differential20
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
5-3-2Record5-4-1
12Points11
28Goals for36
29Goals against32
-1Goal differential4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 6 wins
Total goals32 – 30
Goal differential +2 / -2
Goals per game3.2 / 3.0
Shots per game25.8 / 33.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 29 - 32 View
Dec 27, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
6 - 5 38 - 25 View
Oct 31, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 2 26 - 23 View
Apr 8, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 21 - 36 View
Nov 27, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 2 19 - 34 View
Oct 9, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 8 32 - 21 View
Apr 14, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 24 - 30 View
Jan 10, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
0 - 3 25 - 35 View
Nov 4, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
0 - 7 41 - 34 View
Feb 27, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
0 - 3 31 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK COL