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Vegas Golden Knights vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 8, 2026

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 8, 2026.

November 8, 2026 · 3:30 PM MBT
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

4
Final
Home

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

1 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 50.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

49.7%
Fair American +101
Fair decimal 2.01
Best market -107 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.7%
Edge -2.0%
Expected value -3.9%
Calculate value
Buffalo Sabres logo
Home team

Buffalo Sabres

50.3%
Fair American -101
Fair decimal 1.99
Best market -106 · FanDuel
Market implied 51.5%
Edge -1.2%
Expected value -2.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 8, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
11
Record
6-5
Net units
-0.52
ROI
-4.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

82:28 together · 10 games

xG share50.1%
Corsi for / against
73 / 78
Fenwick for / against
50 / 54
Corsi share
48.3%
Fenwick share
48.1%
xG for / against
3.49 / 3.47
Defense pair

146:23 together · 10 games

xG share60.5%
Corsi for / against
130 / 111
Fenwick for / against
99 / 81
Corsi share
53.9%
Fenwick share
55.0%
xG for / against
7.13 / 4.65
All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

57:57 together · 10 games

xG share71.6%
Corsi for / against
62 / 34
Fenwick for / against
44 / 26
Corsi share
64.6%
Fenwick share
62.9%
xG for / against
3.69 / 1.46
Defense pair

95:54 together · 7 games

xG share50.2%
Corsi for / against
95 / 98
Fenwick for / against
62 / 67
Corsi share
49.2%
Fenwick share
48.1%
xG for / against
3.98 / 3.95
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Vegas Golden Knights

Adin Hill Only eligible candidate

Why Adin Hill?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
+0.363
Team win pct before
-0.339
Won previous appearance
+0.290
Days since last start
+0.261
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.198
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Buffalo Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 56.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.715
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
-0.376
Started last game
-0.294
Won previous appearance
+0.250
Prev save pct
+0.212
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 8, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
8
Starts
8
Wins
6
Save %
0.894
GAA
2.73
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 5

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
124
Save %
89.5
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
28.2

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 6

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.0
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
37.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.95
xG against / game
2.85
xG differential / game
0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.67
xG differential / game
-0.53

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.5
Corsi share (%)
47.6
Fenwick share (%)
49.3
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.4

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.6
Corsi share (%)
48.7
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
44.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 11.4% · Avg distance: 31.4 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 8, 2026.

Vegas Golden Knights

T. Hertl Cold · -0.52 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.25 points/game
0.77 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.3
V. Olofsson Cold · -0.49 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.49 points/game across 136 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.7
M. Stone Cold · -0.45 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.67 points/game
1.11 points/game across 141 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
P. Wotherspoon Hot · +0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.60 points/game
0.25 points/game across 135 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
0.6
R. Andersson Hot · +0.34 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.80 points/game
0.46 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
2.0

Buffalo Sabres

J. Quinn Cold · -0.63 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.63 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.0
Z. Benson Cold · -0.57 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.57 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
T. Thompson Cold · -0.51 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.50 points/game
1.01 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
3.0
J. Norris Cold · -0.40 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.25 points/game
0.65 points/game across 112 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
3.0
M. Grzelcyk Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.35 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.2
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
26Points19
0.684Points %0.559
64Goals for50
51Goals against57
13Goal differential-7
W3Current streakL1
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
10Games9
6Wins4
14Points8
5Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
5-3-2Record5-3-2
12Points12
28Goals for31
29Goals against31
-1Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 7 wins
Total goals27 – 34
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.7 / 3.4
Shots per game31.3 / 28.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 17, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 0 25 - 28 View
Mar 3, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 29 - 28 View
Mar 15, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 4 19 - 37 View
Jan 4, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 3 24 - 33 View
Mar 2, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 7 24 - 35 View
Dec 15, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 2 27 - 35 View
Dec 19, 2022
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 2 18 - 43 View
Nov 10, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
7 - 4 36 - 35 View
Mar 10, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
1 - 3 31 - 24 View
Feb 1, 2022
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5 32 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK BUF