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St. Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 31, 2026

NHL matchup

St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 31, 2026.

December 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM MBT
Away

St. Louis Blues

7-8-2

42.5%
at
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

57.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 57.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

St. Louis Blues logo
Away team

St. Louis Blues

42.5%
Fair American +135
Fair decimal 2.35
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

57.5%
Fair American -135
Fair decimal 1.74
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 31, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

73:04 together · 10 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
61 / 79
Fenwick for / against
47 / 54
Corsi share
43.6%
Fenwick share
46.5%
xG for / against
2.97 / 2.92
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 31, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
155
Save %
91.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
27.1

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.78
xG against / game
3.02
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.0
Corsi share (%)
48.0
Fenwick share (%)
47.0
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
2.3

Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 31, 2026.

St. Louis Blues

J. Barron Hot · +0.80 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
0.20 points/game across 122 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
1.6
C. Fowler Cold · -0.46 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.46 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
D. Dvorsky Cold · -0.30 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.30 points/game across 86 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
J. Snuggerud Hot · +0.30 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
0.70 points/game across 90 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
2.3
C. McMichael Cold · -0.24 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.40 points/game
0.64 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.4

Vegas Golden Knights

M. Marner Cold · -0.54 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.60 points/game
1.14 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
3.4
J. Eichel Cold · -0.43 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.80 points/game
1.23 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
3.4
T. Hertl Cold · -0.38 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.40 points/game
0.78 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
0
Points
2
Shots / game
2.6
S. Theodore Hot · +0.37 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 1.00 points/game
0.63 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
2.2
B. Howden Hot · +0.36 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.80 points/game
0.44 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
2.4
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
16Points26
0.471Points %0.684
50Goals for64
53Goals against51
-3Goal differential13
L1Current streakW3
Road versus home
St. Louis Blues STL road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
10Games9
3Wins6
7Points12
-6Goal differential8
Last 10 games
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
4-5-1Record5-3-2
9Points12
25Goals for28
30Goals against29
-5Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

St. Louis Blues STL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 6 wins
Total goals29 – 34
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game2.9 / 3.4
Shots per game24.7 / 32.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 22, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 6 29 - 31 View
Jan 10, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 4 19 - 25 View
Jan 2, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
3 - 4 24 - 19 View
Nov 15, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 1 34 - 23 View
Jan 23, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 2 31 - 17 View
Jan 20, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 4 28 - 32 View
Oct 11, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 22 - 28 View
Mar 25, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 1 34 - 32 View
Dec 6, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
6 - 3 49 - 29 View
Dec 4, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 1 27 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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