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St. Louis Blues vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 4, 2027

NHL matchup

St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 4, 2027.

March 4, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

St. Louis Blues

8-8-2

49.2%
at
Home

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

50.8% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 50.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

St. Louis Blues logo
Away team

St. Louis Blues

49.2%
Fair American +103
Fair decimal 2.03
Calculate value
Buffalo Sabres logo
Home team

Buffalo Sabres

50.8%
Fair American -103
Fair decimal 1.97
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 4, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.52
ROI
-12.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

71:37 together · 10 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
60 / 79
Fenwick for / against
47 / 54
Corsi share
43.2%
Fenwick share
46.5%
xG for / against
2.97 / 2.92
All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
75 / 69
Fenwick for / against
55 / 57
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
3.74 / 4.14
Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
114 / 106
Fenwick for / against
73 / 74
Corsi share
51.8%
Fenwick share
49.7%
xG for / against
4.43 / 4.32
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 4, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
148
Save %
92.6
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
27.0

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
123
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
30.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.92
xG against / game
2.98
xG differential / game
-0.06

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
3.65
xG differential / game
-0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.9
Corsi share (%)
47.6
Fenwick share (%)
47.3
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
2.3

Shots / game: 28.5 · Shooting: 9.1% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
43.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 4, 2027.

St. Louis Blues

R. Thomas Cold · -1.07 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
1.07 points/game across 149 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
C. Parayko Hot · +0.64 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.36 points/game across 153 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
1.3
D. Holloway Cold · -0.50 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.33 points/game
0.83 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.3
P. Broberg Cold · -0.46 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.46 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.7
C. Fowler Cold · -0.45 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0

Buffalo Sabres

J. Doan Cold · -0.52 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.00 points/game
0.52 points/game across 145 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.6
M. Grzelcyk Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.80 points/game
0.33 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
1.4
R. Dahlin Cold · -0.44 P/GP

4 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.50 points/game
0.94 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
3.5
J. Quinn Hot · +0.40 P/GP

4 games vs St. Louis Blues · 1.00 points/game
0.60 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
2.5
L. Crevier Hot · +0.38 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.60 points/game
0.23 points/game across 120 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.6
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
18Points19
0.500Points %0.559
53Goals for50
55Goals against57
-2Goal differential-7
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
St. Louis Blues STL road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
10Games9
3Wins4
7Points8
-6Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
5-4-1Record5-3-2
11Points12
26Goals for31
27Goals against31
-1Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

St. Louis Blues STL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 5 wins
Total goals35 – 33
Goal differential +2 / -2
Goals per game3.5 / 3.3
Shots per game26.0 / 32.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 29, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 2 34 - 18 View
Nov 6, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 0 17 - 28 View
Dec 29, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 2 16 - 37 View
Nov 14, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 4 27 - 33 View
Feb 10, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 1 26 - 34 View
Nov 30, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 6 46 - 20 View
Jan 24, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
5 - 3 31 - 28 View
Nov 23, 2022
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 6 36 - 32 View
Apr 14, 2022
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
6 - 2 28 - 37 View
Feb 25, 2022
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
3 - 5 38 - 23 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings STL BUF