Pittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | March 2, 2027

March 2, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

6-10-2

51.5% Model pick

Home

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

48.5%

Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 51.5%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

51.5%

Fair American -106

Fair decimal 1.94

Calculate value

Home team

Buffalo Sabres

48.5%

Fair American +106

Fair decimal 2.06

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 2, 2027.

Pittsburgh Penguins

All Model Picks

Bets: 10
Record: 5-5
Net units: 0.59
ROI: 5.9%

Value Picks

Bets: 11
Record: 4-7
Net units: -2.15
ROI: -19.5%

Market Favourite

Bets: 6
Record: 2-4
Net units: -2.38
ROI: -39.7%

Full team betting results

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets: 12
Record: 6-6
Net units: -1.52
ROI: -12.7%

Value Picks

Bets: 6
Record: 1-5
Net units: -4.07
ROI: -67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 9
Record: 6-3
Net units: 1.24
ROI: 13.8%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

66:27 together · 6 games

xG share54.9%

Corsi for / against: 75 / 58
Fenwick for / against: 54 / 46
Corsi share: 56.4%
Fenwick share: 54.0%
xG for / against: 3.93 / 3.23

Defense pair

101:15 together · 10 games

xG share45.3%

Corsi for / against: 95 / 98
Fenwick for / against: 71 / 72
Corsi share: 49.2%
Fenwick share: 49.7%
xG for / against: 4.76 / 5.75

All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%

Corsi for / against: 75 / 69
Fenwick for / against: 55 / 57
Corsi share: 52.1%
Fenwick share: 49.1%
xG for / against: 3.74 / 4.14

Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%

Corsi for / against: 114 / 106
Fenwick for / against: 73 / 74
Corsi share: 51.8%
Fenwick share: 49.7%
xG for / against: 4.43 / 4.32

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Buffalo Sabres

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 2, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Pittsburgh Penguins

A. Silovs

GP: 12
Starts: 12
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.873
GAA: 3.35

S. Murashov

GP: 6
Starts: 6
Wins: 1
Save %: 0.878
GAA: 3.52

Buffalo Sabres

U. Luukkonen

GP: 11
Starts: 10
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.878
GAA: 3.27

C. Ellis

GP: 7
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.884
GAA: 3.09

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 132
Save %: 85.6
Goals allowed: 19
Close-range shots %: 32.6

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 123
Save %: 88.6
Goals allowed: 14
Close-range shots %: 30.1

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game: 3.00
xG against / game: 3.19
xG differential / game: -0.20

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game: 3.32
xG against / game: 3.65
xG differential / game: -0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 58.0
Corsi share (%): 52.4
Fenwick share (%): 50.5
Faceoff win %: 46.2
Penalties / game: 2.8

Shots / game: 26.0 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 60.2
Corsi share (%): 50.5
Fenwick share (%): 49.6
Faceoff win %: 43.4
Penalties / game: 4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 2, 2027.

Pittsburgh Penguins

N. Robertson Hot · +0.66 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.34 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Points: 5
Shots / game: 1.2

E. Karlsson Cold · -0.60 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.20 points/game
0.80 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Points: 1
Shots / game: 1.6

E. Chinakhov Hot · +0.48 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.52 points/game across 112 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 2
Points: 4
Shots / game: 2.0

K. Letang Cold · -0.44 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.44 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 2.0

S. Girard Hot · +0.42 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.75 points/game
0.33 points/game across 144 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 3
Points: 3
Shots / game: 1.3

Buffalo Sabres

J. Norris Hot · +0.72 P/GP

3 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.33 points/game
0.61 points/game across 114 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 3
Points: 4
Shots / game: 3.0

T. Kozak Hot · +0.35 P/GP

4 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.50 points/game
0.15 points/game across 72 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 1
Points: 2
Shots / game: 0.8

R. Dahlin Cold · -0.34 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.60 points/game
0.94 points/game across 158 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 3
Points: 3
Shots / game: 3.6

O. Power Hot · +0.34 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.80 points/game
0.46 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 2
Points: 4
Shots / game: 1.4

J. Zucker Hot · +0.32 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.00 points/game
0.68 points/game across 138 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 3
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.0

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

PIT	Metric	BUF
14	Points	19
0.389	Points %	0.559
58	Goals for	50
65	Goals against	57
-7	Goal differential	-7
L1	Current streak	L1

Road versus home

PIT road	Metric	BUF home
10	Games	9
2	Wins	4
5	Points	8
-7	Goal differential	-6

Last 10 games

PIT	Metric	BUF
3-6-1	Record	5-3-2
7	Points	12
31	Goals for	31
38	Goals against	31
-7	Goal differential	0

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

PIT 6 wins

10 games reviewed

BUF 4 wins

Total goals34 – 30

Goal differential +4 / -4

Goals per game3.4 / 3.0

Shots per game31.0 / 32.9

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Mar 5, 2026	Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins	5 - 1	26 - 28	View
Feb 5, 2026	Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres	5 - 2	32 - 28	View
Nov 26, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins	2 - 4	31 - 19	View
Mar 27, 2025	Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres	3 - 7	25 - 30	View
Jan 17, 2025	Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres	5 - 2	19 - 42	View
Oct 16, 2024	Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins	5 - 6	33 - 43	View
Jan 6, 2024	Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins	3 - 1	32 - 41	View
Nov 24, 2023	Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres	2 - 3	33 - 34	View
Nov 11, 2023	Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins	0 - 4	35 - 39	View
Dec 10, 2022	Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins	1 - 3	38 - 31	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 2, 2027

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

Pittsburgh Penguins

Buffalo Sabres

Model V2 versus market

Pittsburgh Penguins

Buffalo Sabres

Team performance leading into this game

Pittsburgh Penguins

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Pittsburgh Penguins

Buffalo Sabres

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Pittsburgh Penguins

Buffalo Sabres

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Pittsburgh Penguins

Buffalo Sabres

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games