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New York Rangers vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 11, 2027

NHL matchup

New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 11, 2027.

March 11, 2027 · 9:00 PM MBT
Away

New York Rangers

10-8-1

34.7%
at
Home

Colorado Avalanche

11-6-2

65.3% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 65.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Rangers logo
Away team

New York Rangers

34.7%
Fair American +188
Fair decimal 2.88
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

65.3%
Fair American -188
Fair decimal 1.53
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 11, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Rangers

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Defense pair

135:06 together · 9 games

xG share59.7%
Corsi for / against
143 / 124
Fenwick for / against
99 / 92
Corsi share
53.6%
Fenwick share
51.8%
xG for / against
6.28 / 4.23
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

93:41 together · 10 games

xG share58.4%
Corsi for / against
111 / 80
Fenwick for / against
88 / 62
Corsi share
58.1%
Fenwick share
58.7%
xG for / against
6.90 / 4.92
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 11, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.4

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
121
Save %
90.9
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.37
xG against / game
2.83
xG differential / game
0.54

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.16
xG against / game
3.01
xG differential / game
0.14

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.1
Corsi share (%)
51.4
Fenwick share (%)
51.1
Faceoff win %
54.1
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 29.7 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.7
Corsi share (%)
52.6
Fenwick share (%)
51.9
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 13.1% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 11, 2027.

New York Rangers

M. Pettersson Hot · +0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.80 points/game
0.27 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.0
O. Bjorkstrand Cold · -0.50 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.50 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
S. Durzi Cold · -0.43 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 101 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
V. Gavrikov Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 179 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.4
T. Raddysh Cold · -0.31 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.31 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.3

Colorado Avalanche

C. Makar Hot · +0.90 P/GP

4 games vs New York Rangers · 2.00 points/game
1.10 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
4
Points
8
Shots / game
5.0
M. Necas Hot · +0.85 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 2.00 points/game
1.15 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
10
Points
10
Shots / game
2.4
N. MacKinnon Hot · +0.73 P/GP

4 games vs New York Rangers · 2.25 points/game
1.52 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
5
Points
9
Shots / game
4.0
N. Kadri Hot · +0.60 P/GP

3 games vs New York Rangers · 1.33 points/game
0.73 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
3.3
B. Burns Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
21Points24
0.553Points %0.632
56Goals for78
55Goals against59
1Goal differential19
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
New York Rangers NYR road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
9Games10
2Wins7
5Points16
-15Goal differential20
Last 10 games
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
4-5-1Record6-3-1
9Points13
28Goals for40
34Goals against32
-6Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Rangers NYR 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 7 wins
Total goals25 – 35
Goal differential -10 / +10
Goals per game2.5 / 3.5
Shots per game29.8 / 35.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 6, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 42 - 26 View
Nov 20, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 6 19 - 35 View
Jan 26, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 4 22 - 37 View
Jan 14, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 29 - 26 View
Mar 28, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 25 - 40 View
Feb 5, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 2 33 - 29 View
Dec 9, 2022
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 1 29 - 42 View
Oct 25, 2022
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 44 - 46 View
Dec 14, 2021
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 4 28 - 31 View
Dec 8, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
7 - 3 39 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYR COL