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Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 16, 2027

NHL matchup

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 16, 2027.

February 16, 2027 · 8:00 PM MBT
Away

Minnesota Wild

13-3-4

50.4% Model pick
at
Home

Dallas Stars

10-5-2

49.6%
Model V2 pick: Minnesota Wild at 50.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Minnesota Wild logo
Away team

Minnesota Wild

50.4%
Fair American -102
Fair decimal 1.98
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 16, 2027.

Minnesota Wild

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
9-3
Net units
2.86
ROI
23.8%

Value Picks

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Net units
-1.64
ROI
-23.4%

Market Favourite

Bets
14
Record
11-3
Net units
4.36
ROI
31.2%
Full team betting results

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-14.3%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
15
Record
9-6
Net units
-0.62
ROI
-4.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

112:44 together · 10 games

xG share52.4%
Corsi for / against
118 / 100
Fenwick for / against
86 / 78
Corsi share
54.1%
Fenwick share
52.4%
xG for / against
5.72 / 5.19
Defense pair

127:00 together · 10 games

xG share44.8%
Corsi for / against
130 / 118
Fenwick for / against
91 / 86
Corsi share
52.4%
Fenwick share
51.4%
xG for / against
5.04 / 6.20
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

53:27 together · 10 games

xG share53.8%
Corsi for / against
39 / 43
Fenwick for / against
29 / 23
Corsi share
47.6%
Fenwick share
55.8%
xG for / against
2.03 / 1.74
Defense pair

81:03 together · 8 games

xG share69.2%
Corsi for / against
92 / 57
Fenwick for / against
63 / 31
Corsi share
61.7%
Fenwick share
67.0%
xG for / against
4.74 / 2.11
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Feb 16, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jesper Wallstedt

Minnesota Wild · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
93.1
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.4

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
112
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

xG for / game
3.42
xG against / game
2.78
xG differential / game
0.64

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.45
xG against / game
2.68
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.6
Corsi share (%)
50.6
Fenwick share (%)
52.0
Faceoff win %
44.1
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 11.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.0
Corsi share (%)
51.2
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
58.4
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 27.2 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Feb 16, 2027.

Minnesota Wild

M. Boldy Hot · +0.83 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 1.80 points/game
0.97 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
6
Points
9
Shots / game
5.6
Q. Hughes Hot · +0.51 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 1.60 points/game
1.09 points/game across 156 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
6
Points
8
Shots / game
2.0
J. Spurgeon Hot · +0.44 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.80 points/game
0.36 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
1.2
N. Foligno Cold · -0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.39 points/game across 130 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.4
D. Yurov Cold · -0.38 P/GP

4 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 89 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.3

Dallas Stars

E. Lindell Hot · +0.88 P/GP

5 games vs Minnesota Wild · 1.20 points/game
0.32 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
5
Points
6
Shots / game
1.2
D. Perron Cold · -0.40 P/GP

3 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 109 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3
J. Benn Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.20 points/game
0.60 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.2
S. Steel Cold · -0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.6
T. Myers Cold · -0.24 P/GP

5 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.00 points/game
0.24 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.2
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
30Points22
0.750Points %0.647
65Goals for49
44Goals against41
21Goal differential8
W1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Minnesota Wild MIN road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
13Games10
8Wins6
18Points12
13Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
7-1-2Record7-2-1
16Points15
34Goals for33
19Goals against28
15Goal differential5
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Minnesota Wild MIN 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 6 wins
Total goals22 – 33
Goal differential -11 / +11
Goals per game2.2 / 3.3
Shots per game29.2 / 26.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 9, 2026
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 5 31 - 20 View
Mar 21, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
1 - 2 29 - 28 View
Dec 11, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 5 18 - 32 View
Oct 14, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 5 41 - 25 View
Apr 6, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 3 25 - 41 View
Mar 24, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
0 - 3 32 - 29 View
Dec 27, 2024
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 18 - 29 View
Nov 16, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 1 40 - 23 View
Jan 10, 2024
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 7 23 - 34 View
Jan 8, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
4 - 0 20 - 23 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MIN DAL