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Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 2, 2027

NHL matchup

Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 2, 2027.

January 2, 2027 · 10:00 PM MBT
Away

Colorado Avalanche

10-6-2

46.9%
at
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

53.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 53.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Colorado Avalanche logo
Away team

Colorado Avalanche

46.9%
Fair American +113
Fair decimal 2.13
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

53.1%
Fair American -113
Fair decimal 1.88
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 2, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:15 together · 10 games

xG share55.4%
Corsi for / against
122 / 82
Fenwick for / against
92 / 64
Corsi share
59.8%
Fenwick share
59.0%
xG for / against
6.39 / 5.15
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 2, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
35.0

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.09
xG differential / game
-0.03

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.6
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.7
Faceoff win %
48.4
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 30.4 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 2, 2027.

Colorado Avalanche

N. MacKinnon Cold · -0.56 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
1.56 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
6.6
A. Lehkonen Cold · -0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.20 points/game
0.72 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.8
J. Schwartz Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.20 points/game
0.60 points/game across 143 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.4
P. Kelly Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.35 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
C. Makar Cold · -0.33 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.80 points/game
1.13 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.6

Vegas Golden Knights

M. Marner Hot · +0.28 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.40 points/game
1.12 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
2.4
B. Howden Cold · -0.25 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.20 points/game
0.45 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.6
A. Holtz Hot · +0.25 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.50 points/game
0.25 points/game across 79 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.5
T. Hertl Hot · +0.24 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.00 points/game
0.76 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
1.8
N. Hanifin Hot · +0.18 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.60 points/game
0.42 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.6
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
22Points26
0.611Points %0.684
72Goals for64
56Goals against51
16Goal differential13
W1Current streakW3
Road versus home
Colorado Avalanche COL road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
8Games9
3Wins6
6Points12
-4Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
5-4-1Record5-3-2
11Points12
36Goals for28
32Goals against29
4Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Colorado Avalanche COL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 4 wins
Total goals30 – 32
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.0 / 3.2
Shots per game33.2 / 25.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 29 - 32 View
Dec 27, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
6 - 5 38 - 25 View
Oct 31, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 2 26 - 23 View
Apr 8, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 21 - 36 View
Nov 27, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 2 19 - 34 View
Oct 9, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 8 32 - 21 View
Apr 14, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 24 - 30 View
Jan 10, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
0 - 3 25 - 35 View
Nov 4, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
0 - 7 41 - 34 View
Feb 27, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
0 - 3 31 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings COL VGK