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Colorado Avalanche vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 5, 2026

NHL matchup

Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 5, 2026.

December 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Colorado Avalanche

10-6-2

48.0%
at
Home

New York Rangers

10-8-1

52.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Rangers at 52.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Colorado Avalanche logo
Away team

Colorado Avalanche

48.0%
Fair American +108
Fair decimal 2.08
Calculate value
New York Rangers logo
Home team

New York Rangers

52.0%
Fair American -108
Fair decimal 1.92
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 5, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:15 together · 10 games

xG share55.4%
Corsi for / against
122 / 82
Fenwick for / against
92 / 64
Corsi share
59.8%
Fenwick share
59.0%
xG for / against
6.39 / 5.15
All observed combinations

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

149:50 together · 10 games

xG share58.2%
Corsi for / against
154 / 142
Fenwick for / against
108 / 105
Corsi share
52.0%
Fenwick share
50.7%
xG for / against
6.82 / 4.90
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 5, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
35.0

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.09
xG differential / game
-0.03

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.43
xG against / game
2.86
xG differential / game
0.56

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.6
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.7
Faceoff win %
48.4
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 30.4 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.0
Corsi share (%)
51.3
Fenwick share (%)
51.0
Faceoff win %
54.1
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 28.4 · Shooting: 9.9% · Avg distance: 29.7 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 5, 2026.

Colorado Avalanche

C. Makar Hot · +0.90 P/GP

4 games vs New York Rangers · 2.00 points/game
1.10 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
4
Points
8
Shots / game
5.0
M. Necas Hot · +0.85 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 2.00 points/game
1.15 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
10
Points
10
Shots / game
2.4
N. MacKinnon Hot · +0.72 P/GP

4 games vs New York Rangers · 2.25 points/game
1.53 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
5
Points
9
Shots / game
4.0
N. Kadri Hot · +0.60 P/GP

3 games vs New York Rangers · 1.33 points/game
0.73 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
3.3
B. Burns Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0

New York Rangers

M. Pettersson Hot · +0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.80 points/game
0.27 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.0
O. Bjorkstrand Cold · -0.51 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.51 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
S. Durzi Cold · -0.43 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 101 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
V. Gavrikov Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.4
T. Raddysh Cold · -0.31 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.31 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.3
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
22Points21
0.611Points %0.553
72Goals for56
56Goals against55
16Goal differential1
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Colorado Avalanche COL road
Metric
New York Rangers NYR home
8Games10
3Wins8
6Points16
-4Goal differential16
Last 10 games
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
5-4-1Record4-5-1
11Points9
36Goals for28
32Goals against34
4Goal differential-6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Colorado Avalanche COL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Rangers NYR 3 wins
Total goals35 – 25
Goal differential +10 / -10
Goals per game3.5 / 2.5
Shots per game35.4 / 29.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 6, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 42 - 26 View
Nov 20, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 6 19 - 35 View
Jan 26, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 4 22 - 37 View
Jan 14, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 29 - 26 View
Mar 28, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 25 - 40 View
Feb 5, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 2 33 - 29 View
Dec 9, 2022
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 1 29 - 42 View
Oct 25, 2022
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 44 - 46 View
Dec 14, 2021
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 4 28 - 31 View
Dec 8, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers New York Rangers
7 - 3 39 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings COL NYR