Buffalo Sabres vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | November 17, 2026

November 17, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT

Away

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

52.1% Model pick

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

47.9%

Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 52.1%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Buffalo Sabres

52.1%

Fair American -109

Fair decimal 1.92

Calculate value

Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

47.9%

Fair American +109

Fair decimal 2.09

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 17, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets: 12
Record: 6-6
Net units: -1.52
ROI: -12.7%

Value Picks

Bets: 6
Record: 1-5
Net units: -4.07
ROI: -67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 9
Record: 6-3
Net units: 1.24
ROI: 13.8%

Full team betting results

Philadelphia Flyers

All Model Picks

Bets: 1
Record: 0-1
Net units: -1.00
ROI: -100.0%

Value Picks

Bets: 8
Record: 3-5
Net units: -0.11
ROI: -1.4%

Market Favourite

Bets: 5
Record: 1-4
Net units: -3.23
ROI: -64.6%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%

Corsi for / against: 75 / 69
Fenwick for / against: 55 / 57
Corsi share: 52.1%
Fenwick share: 49.1%
xG for / against: 3.74 / 4.14

Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%

Corsi for / against: 114 / 106
Fenwick for / against: 73 / 74
Corsi share: 51.8%
Fenwick share: 49.7%
xG for / against: 4.43 / 4.32

All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

76:15 together · 9 games

xG share55.6%

Corsi for / against: 55 / 68
Fenwick for / against: 33 / 41
Corsi share: 44.7%
Fenwick share: 44.6%
xG for / against: 2.69 / 2.14

Defense pair

106:10 together · 10 games

xG share49.9%

Corsi for / against: 95 / 92
Fenwick for / against: 69 / 66
Corsi share: 50.8%
Fenwick share: 51.1%
xG for / against: 4.73 / 4.75

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Philadelphia Flyers

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 17, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Buffalo Sabres

U. Luukkonen

GP: 11
Starts: 10
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.878
GAA: 3.27

C. Ellis

GP: 7
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.884
GAA: 3.09

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar

GP: 10
Starts: 10
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.880
GAA: 3.27

J. Woll

GP: 10
Starts: 10
Wins: 2
Save %: 0.901
GAA: 2.91

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 123
Save %: 88.6
Goals allowed: 14
Close-range shots %: 30.1

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 129
Save %: 88.4
Goals allowed: 15
Close-range shots %: 31.0

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game: 3.32
xG against / game: 3.65
xG differential / game: -0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game: 3.06
xG against / game: 3.11
xG differential / game: -0.04

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 60.2
Corsi share (%): 50.5
Fenwick share (%): 49.6
Faceoff win %: 43.4
Penalties / game: 4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 56.8
Corsi share (%): 50.5
Fenwick share (%): 49.7
Faceoff win %: 50.6
Penalties / game: 3.8

Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 29.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 17, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

J. Quinn Hot · +0.62 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.20 points/game
0.58 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 3
Points: 6
Shots / game: 2.4

R. McLeod Hot · +0.60 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.20 points/game
0.60 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 3
Points: 6
Shots / game: 1.8

T. Thompson Cold · -0.41 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.60 points/game
1.01 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 2
Points: 3
Shots / game: 2.4

J.Kulich Cold · -0.40 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 80 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.0

J. Norris Hot · +0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
0.62 points/game across 112 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 3
Points: 5
Shots / game: 1.6

Philadelphia Flyers

T. Foerster Hot · +0.77 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.25 points/game
0.48 points/game across 125 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.8

T. Konecny Hot · +0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.40 points/game
0.86 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 5
Points: 7
Shots / game: 2.2

N. Cates Hot · +0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.47 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 3
Points: 5
Shots / game: 1.8

M. Michkov Hot · +0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.20 points/game
0.68 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 4
Points: 6
Shots / game: 2.6

C. Dvorak Cold · -0.51 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.51 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.8

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

BUF	Metric	PHI
19	Points	15
0.559	Points %	0.375
50	Goals for	45
57	Goals against	66
-7	Goal differential	-21
L1	Current streak	W1

Road versus home

BUF road	Metric	PHI home
8	Games	10
4	Wins	3
11	Points	9
-1	Goal differential	-10

Last 10 games

BUF	Metric	PHI
5-3-2	Record	4-4-2
12	Points	10
31	Goals for	31
31	Goals against	32
0	Goal differential	-1

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

BUF 5 wins

10 games reviewed

PHI 5 wins

Total goals34 – 38

Goal differential -4 / +4

Goals per game3.4 / 3.8

Shots per game23.2 / 29.1

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Oct 21, 2026	Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres	3 - 1	26 - 28	View
Jan 14, 2026	Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres	2 - 5	22 - 14	View
Dec 18, 2025	Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres	3 - 5	27 - 28	View
Dec 3, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers	2 - 5	29 - 35	View
Apr 17, 2025	Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres	4 - 5	24 - 31	View
Mar 29, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers	4 - 7	21 - 32	View
Nov 16, 2024	Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers	2 - 5	25 - 32	View
Apr 5, 2024	Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres	2 - 4	34 - 19	View
Nov 3, 2023	Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres	5 - 1	19 - 22	View
Nov 1, 2023	Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers	5 - 2	15 - 40	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Buffalo Sabres vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 17, 2026

Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers

Buffalo Sabres

Philadelphia Flyers

Model V2 versus market

Buffalo Sabres

Philadelphia Flyers

Team performance leading into this game

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Philadelphia Flyers

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Buffalo Sabres

Philadelphia Flyers

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Buffalo Sabres

Philadelphia Flyers

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Buffalo Sabres

Philadelphia Flyers

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games