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Buffalo Sabres vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 14, 2026

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 14, 2026.

November 14, 2026 · 8:00 PM MBT
Away

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

54.5% Model pick
at
Home

Dallas Stars

10-5-2

45.5%
Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 54.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Buffalo Sabres logo
Away team

Buffalo Sabres

54.5%
Fair American -120
Fair decimal 1.83
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 14, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.52
ROI
-12.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-14.3%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
15
Record
9-6
Net units
-0.62
ROI
-4.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
75 / 69
Fenwick for / against
55 / 57
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
3.74 / 4.14
Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
114 / 106
Fenwick for / against
73 / 74
Corsi share
51.8%
Fenwick share
49.7%
xG for / against
4.43 / 4.32
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

53:27 together · 10 games

xG share53.8%
Corsi for / against
39 / 43
Fenwick for / against
29 / 23
Corsi share
47.6%
Fenwick share
55.8%
xG for / against
2.03 / 1.74
Defense pair

81:03 together · 8 games

xG share69.2%
Corsi for / against
92 / 57
Fenwick for / against
63 / 31
Corsi share
61.7%
Fenwick share
67.0%
xG for / against
4.74 / 2.11
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 14, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
123
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
30.1

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
112
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
3.65
xG differential / game
-0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.45
xG against / game
2.68
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
43.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.0
Corsi share (%)
51.2
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
58.4
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 27.2 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 14, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

R. Dahlin Cold · -0.95 P/GP

4 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.95 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.5
O. Power Hot · +0.75 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 1.20 points/game
0.45 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
6
Points
6
Shots / game
1.2
J. Quinn Cold · -0.63 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.63 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.4
T. Thompson Hot · +0.52 P/GP

4 games vs Dallas Stars · 1.50 points/game
0.98 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
3
Points
6
Shots / game
4.3
M. Samuelsson Cold · -0.42 P/GP

4 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.42 points/game across 153 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0

Dallas Stars

M. Rantanen Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.60 points/game
1.13 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
5
Points
8
Shots / game
2.0
M. Heiskanen Cold · -0.46 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.25 points/game
0.71 points/game across 138 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.8
J. Benn Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.20 points/game
0.60 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.4
R. Hintz Cold · -0.37 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.50 points/game
0.87 points/game across 142 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
0
Points
2
Shots / game
2.8
E. Lindell Hot · +0.27 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.60 points/game
0.33 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
19Points22
0.559Points %0.647
50Goals for49
57Goals against41
-7Goal differential8
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
8Games10
4Wins6
11Points12
-1Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
5-3-2Record7-2-1
12Points15
31Goals for33
31Goals against28
0Goal differential5
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 7 wins
Total goals25 – 36
Goal differential -11 / +11
Goals per game2.5 / 3.6
Shots per game29.2 / 30.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 8, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 0 18 - 26 View
Apr 15, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3 28 - 24 View
Dec 31, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 1 31 - 29 View
Dec 31, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 4 23 - 33 View
Oct 22, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 4 30 - 25 View
Apr 9, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 21 - 24 View
Feb 6, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 1 30 - 48 View
Mar 9, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
10 - 4 49 - 29 View
Jan 23, 2023
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 25 - 31 View
Feb 27, 2022
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 4 40 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BUF DAL