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Vegas Golden Knights vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 2, 2027

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 2, 2027.

March 2, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

49.6%
at
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

50.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Philadelphia Flyers at 50.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

49.6%
Fair American +102
Fair decimal 2.02
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

50.4%
Fair American -102
Fair decimal 1.98
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 2, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

76:15 together · 9 games

xG share55.6%
Corsi for / against
55 / 68
Fenwick for / against
33 / 41
Corsi share
44.7%
Fenwick share
44.6%
xG for / against
2.69 / 2.14
Defense pair

106:10 together · 10 games

xG share49.9%
Corsi for / against
95 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 66
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
51.1%
xG for / against
4.73 / 4.75
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 2, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
3
Save %
0.880
GAA
3.27
J. Woll
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
2
Save %
0.901
GAA
2.91
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
88.4
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
-0.04

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.8
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.7
Faceoff win %
50.6
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 29.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 2, 2027.

Vegas Golden Knights

M. Stone Hot · +0.58 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.67 points/game
1.08 points/game across 142 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
3.3
M. Marner Cold · -0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.60 points/game
1.14 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.2
J. Eichel Hot · +0.54 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.75 points/game
1.21 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
6
Points
7
Shots / game
2.0
B. Howden Cold · -0.45 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
N. Hanifin Hot · +0.33 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.75 points/game
0.42 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.5

Philadelphia Flyers

T. Zegras Cold · -0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.20 points/game
0.73 points/game across 153 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
0.8
M. Michkov Cold · -0.47 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.25 points/game
0.72 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.3
J. Drysdale Cold · -0.37 P/GP

3 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.37 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.0
C. York Cold · -0.29 P/GP

3 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.0
N. Acciari Cold · -0.25 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.25 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.5
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
26Points15
0.684Points %0.375
64Goals for45
51Goals against66
13Goal differential-21
W3Current streakW1
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
10Games10
6Wins3
14Points9
5Goal differential-10
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
5-3-2Record4-4-2
12Points10
28Goals for31
29Goals against32
-1Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 4 wins
Total goals31 – 26
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.1 / 2.6
Shots per game32.2 / 26.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 19, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 1 17 - 25 View
Dec 11, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2 21 - 19 View
Jan 2, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5 25 - 27 View
Nov 25, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 4 30 - 36 View
Nov 18, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 4 31 - 38 View
Oct 24, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 3 28 - 29 View
Mar 14, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 3 33 - 30 View
Dec 9, 2022
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 2 28 - 34 View
Mar 8, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 2 48 - 21 View
Dec 10, 2021
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 25 - 44 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK PHI