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Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 10, 2026.

December 10, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

43.1%
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

11-6-1

56.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 56.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

43.1%
Fair American +132
Fair decimal 2.32
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

56.9%
Fair American -132
Fair decimal 1.76
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 10, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:06 together · 6 games

xG share45.3%
Corsi for / against
36 / 42
Fenwick for / against
22 / 37
Corsi share
46.2%
Fenwick share
37.3%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.22
Defense pair

115:11 together · 9 games

xG share49.0%
Corsi for / against
106 / 100
Fenwick for / against
77 / 85
Corsi share
51.5%
Fenwick share
47.5%
xG for / against
5.18 / 5.40
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 10, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
92.2
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.26
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.35

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.3
Corsi share (%)
52.0
Fenwick share (%)
51.4
Faceoff win %
55.2
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 10, 2026.

Vegas Golden Knights

M. Marner Cold · -0.55 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.60 points/game
1.15 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.8
I. Barbashev Hot · +0.49 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.20 points/game
0.71 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
4
Points
6
Shots / game
1.4
T. Hertl Cold · -0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.40 points/game
0.78 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.6
B. McNabb Cold · -0.25 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.25 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.5
J. Eichel Cold · -0.23 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.00 points/game
1.23 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
2.4

Ottawa Senators

S. Halliday Hot · +0.69 P/GP

3 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
0.31 points/game across 45 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
2.3
M. Amadio Cold · -0.43 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
C. Giroux Hot · +0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
0.60 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
1.6
F. Zetterlund Hot · +0.37 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.80 points/game
0.43 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.8
A. Zub Cold · -0.33 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.33 points/game across 144 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.5
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
26Points23
0.684Points %0.639
64Goals for58
51Goals against54
13Goal differential4
W3Current streakW2
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
10Games8
6Wins6
14Points12
5Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
5-3-2Record5-4-1
12Points11
28Goals for35
29Goals against34
-1Goal differential1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 3 wins
Total goals37 – 31
Goal differential +6 / -6
Goals per game3.7 / 3.1
Shots per game31.4 / 34.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 27, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 4 26 - 29 View
Jan 25, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 7 20 - 31 View
Nov 26, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 22 - 35 View
Nov 21, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 32 - 40 View
Oct 25, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 6 39 - 28 View
Feb 24, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 4 29 - 33 View
Dec 17, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 6 25 - 31 View
Nov 23, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 4 40 - 36 View
Nov 3, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 4 32 - 46 View
Mar 6, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 2 40 - 42 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK OTT