Skip to content

Vegas Golden Knights vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 4, 2027

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 4, 2027.

March 4, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

53.7% Model pick
at
Home

New York Islanders

7-6-4

46.3%
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 53.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

53.7%
Fair American -116
Fair decimal 1.86
Calculate value
New York Islanders logo
Home team

New York Islanders

46.3%
Fair American +116
Fair decimal 2.16
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 4, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

99:18 together · 10 games

xG share56.5%
Corsi for / against
128 / 108
Fenwick for / against
96 / 79
Corsi share
54.2%
Fenwick share
54.9%
xG for / against
8.42 / 6.47
Defense pair

107:59 together · 10 games

xG share56.6%
Corsi for / against
125 / 92
Fenwick for / against
93 / 74
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
55.7%
xG for / against
7.49 / 5.74
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 4, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4

Ilya Sorokin

New York Islanders · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
179
Save %
89.4
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
30.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
3.24
xG against / game
3.65
xG differential / game
-0.41

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.5
Corsi share (%)
48.8
Fenwick share (%)
47.6
Faceoff win %
58.1
Penalties / game
4.6

Shots / game: 26.0 · Shooting: 10.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 4, 2027.

Vegas Golden Knights

R. Andersson Hot · +1.22 P/GP

3 games vs New York Islanders · 1.67 points/game
0.44 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
2.3
T. Hertl Cold · -0.53 P/GP

4 games vs New York Islanders · 0.25 points/game
0.78 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
3.0
J. Eichel Cold · -0.48 P/GP

4 games vs New York Islanders · 0.75 points/game
1.23 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
3.5
M. Stone Cold · -0.44 P/GP

3 games vs New York Islanders · 0.67 points/game
1.11 points/game across 142 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
I. Barbashev Cold · -0.40 P/GP

3 games vs New York Islanders · 0.33 points/game
0.73 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.3

New York Islanders

A. Romanov Hot · +0.77 P/GP

3 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
0.23 points/game across 79 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
0.7
B. Horvat Hot · +0.73 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.50 points/game
0.77 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
2.8
E. Heineman Hot · +0.41 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.75 points/game
0.34 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
0
Points
3
Shots / game
1.5
M. Maccelli Hot · +0.34 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.80 points/game
0.46 points/game across 129 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
1.0
C. Cizikas Hot · +0.30 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.50 points/game
0.20 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
0.5
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
26Points18
0.684Points %0.529
64Goals for49
51Goals against52
13Goal differential-3
W3Current streakOT2
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
New York Islanders NYI home
10Games9
6Wins4
14Points10
5Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
5-3-2Record4-3-3
12Points11
28Goals for29
29Goals against35
-1Goal differential-6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 3 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Islanders NYI 7 wins
Total goals23 – 31
Goal differential -8 / +8
Goals per game2.3 / 3.1
Shots per game34.6 / 27.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 9, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 5 36 - 27 View
Nov 13, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 24 - 29 View
Feb 4, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 2 34 - 14 View
Jan 9, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 0 21 - 30 View
Jan 23, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 2 27 - 42 View
Jan 6, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5 29 - 30 View
Jan 28, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 2 46 - 38 View
Dec 17, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 2 26 - 38 View
Dec 19, 2021
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 3 34 - 32 View
Oct 24, 2021
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 0 26 - 42 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK NYI