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Utah Mammoth vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 15, 2026

NHL matchup

Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 15, 2026.

October 15, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Utah Mammoth

8-4-0

4 Model pick
Final
Home

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-2

2
Model V2 pick: Utah Mammoth at 54.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Utah Mammoth logo
Away team

Utah Mammoth

54.3%
Fair American -119
Fair decimal 1.84
Best market +106 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 48.5%
Edge +5.8%
Expected value +11.9%
Calculate value
Edmonton Oilers logo
Home team

Edmonton Oilers

45.7%
Fair American +119
Fair decimal 2.19
Best market -115 · Bovada
Market implied 53.5%
Edge -7.8%
Expected value -14.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 15, 2026.

Utah Mammoth

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
0.95
ROI
15.8%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
3-1
Net units
1.69
ROI
42.2%

Market Favourite

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
1.95
ROI
39.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Utah Mammoth

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

92:04 together · 7 games

xG share58.6%
Corsi for / against
107 / 73
Fenwick for / against
79 / 55
Corsi share
59.4%
Fenwick share
59.0%
xG for / against
5.39 / 3.81
All observed combinations

Edmonton Oilers

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

78:24 together · 6 games

xG share75.3%
Corsi for / against
86 / 48
Fenwick for / against
62 / 39
Corsi share
64.2%
Fenwick share
61.4%
xG for / against
4.45 / 1.46
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Utah Mammoth

Karel Vejmelka 60.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Karel Vejmelka?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.558
Team win pct before
-0.471
Prev save pct
-0.364
Goalie team start share
+0.337
Started last game
-0.284
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Edmonton Oilers

Devon Levi 74.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Devon Levi?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.631
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.527
Team win pct before
-0.494
Started last game
-0.311
Goalie win pct before
+0.262
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Karel Vejmelka

Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 13

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
118
Save %
88.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
36.4

Devon Levi

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 13

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
113
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
31.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Utah Mammoth

xG for / game
3.92
xG against / game
2.78
xG differential / game
1.14

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.12
xG against / game
2.43
xG differential / game
0.69

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Utah Mammoth

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
68.7
Corsi share (%)
57.1
Fenwick share (%)
57.8
Faceoff win %
52.5
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 31.3 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Edmonton Oilers

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
53.5
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 19.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Utah Mammoth UTA
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
16Points18
0.667Points %0.750
46Goals for52
40Goals against43
6Goal differential9
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Utah Mammoth UTA road
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM home
7Games7
4Wins3
8Points8
1Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Utah Mammoth UTA
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
36Goals for38
39Goals against30
-3Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Utah Mammoth UTA 1 wins
3 games reviewed
Edmonton Oilers EDM 2 wins
Total goals11 – 16
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game3.67 / 5.33
Shots per game24.0 / 25.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 7, 2026
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
5 - 6 26 - 31 View
Mar 24, 2026
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
5 - 2 26 - 18 View
Oct 28, 2025
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 6 23 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings UTA EDM