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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 8, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 8, 2026.

November 8, 2026 · 6:00 PM MBT
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

11-4-2

3 Model pick
Final
Home

Winnipeg Jets

7-8-3

4
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 53.9% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

53.9%
Fair American -117
Fair decimal 1.86
Best market -142 · Bovada
Market implied 58.7%
Edge -4.8%
Expected value -8.1%
Calculate value
Winnipeg Jets logo
Home team

Winnipeg Jets

46.1%
Fair American +117
Fair decimal 2.17
Best market +126 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 44.2%
Edge +1.9%
Expected value +4.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 8, 2026.

Winnipeg Jets

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
2-4
Net units
-2.59
ROI
-43.1%

Value Picks

Bets
9
Record
2-7
Net units
-3.82
ROI
-42.4%

Market Favourite

Bets
5
Record
2-3
Net units
-1.59
ROI
-31.7%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

81:21 together · 9 games

xG share65.4%
Corsi for / against
92 / 62
Fenwick for / against
72 / 41
Corsi share
59.7%
Fenwick share
63.7%
xG for / against
4.49 / 2.38
All observed combinations

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

67:44 together · 6 games

xG share52.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 58
Fenwick for / against
59 / 47
Corsi share
57.4%
Fenwick share
55.7%
xG for / against
3.73 / 3.36
Defense pair

141:31 together · 10 games

xG share54.3%
Corsi for / against
147 / 107
Fenwick for / against
110 / 78
Corsi share
57.9%
Fenwick share
58.5%
xG for / against
6.54 / 5.51
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy 95.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Andrei Vasilevskiy?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.800
Team played yesterday
+0.727
Days since last start
+0.506
Consecutive starts
+0.485
Started last game
+0.405
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Winnipeg Jets

Stuart Skinner 56.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Stuart Skinner?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.613
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.504
Team win pct before
+0.436
Won previous appearance
+0.313
Prev save pct
+0.307
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 8, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Nov 7

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
100
Save %
88.0
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
33.0

Stuart Skinner

Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Nov 5

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
107
Save %
83.2
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
38.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.78
xG against / game
2.96
xG differential / game
0.82

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Winnipeg Jets

xG for / game
3.19
xG against / game
3.67
xG differential / game
-0.48

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
65.3
Corsi share (%)
55.6
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
51.1
Penalties / game
3.4

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 13.8% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.6
Corsi share (%)
49.5
Fenwick share (%)
48.7
Faceoff win %
46.3
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 8.5% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 8, 2026.

Tampa Bay Lightning

P. Holmberg Hot · +0.48 P/GP

5 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.80 points/game
0.32 points/game across 149 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.2
N. Kucherov Cold · -0.41 P/GP

5 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 1.20 points/game
1.61 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
4
Points
6
Shots / game
3.0
Z. Girgensons Hot · +0.34 P/GP

4 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.50 points/game
0.16 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.0
V. Hedman Cold · -0.21 P/GP

4 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.50 points/game
0.71 points/game across 123 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.3
R. McDonagh Cold · -0.19 P/GP

5 games vs Winnipeg Jets · 0.20 points/game
0.39 points/game across 141 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.0

Winnipeg Jets

G. Vilardi Cold · -0.62 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.20 points/game
0.82 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
0.8
D. Samberg Hot · +0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.80 points/game
0.26 points/game across 138 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.6
M. Scheifele Hot · +0.48 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 1.60 points/game
1.13 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
6
Points
8
Shots / game
1.6
C. Koepke Hot · +0.37 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.60 points/game
0.23 points/game across 145 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.0
V. Namestnikov Hot · +0.30 P/GP

3 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.67 points/game
0.36 points/game across 141 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.3
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
24Points17
0.706Points %0.472
63Goals for49
53Goals against63
10Goal differential-14
L1Current streakW3
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG home
9Games9
3Wins4
8Points9
-6Goal differential-2
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
6-2-2Record3-6-1
14Points7
42Goals for26
34Goals against39
8Goal differential-13
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Winnipeg Jets WPG 6 wins
Total goals34 – 35
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game3.4 / 3.5
Shots per game32.1 / 25.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 29, 2026
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 6 21 - 31 View
Mar 5, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
1 - 4 27 - 30 View
Jan 29, 2026
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 23 - 37 View
Nov 14, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 24 - 29 View
Nov 3, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 7 30 - 34 View
Jan 2, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
2 - 4 34 - 28 View
Nov 22, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 32 - 33 View
Mar 12, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 22 - 35 View
Jan 6, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
2 - 4 28 - 20 View
Apr 16, 2022
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 7 18 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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