Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
51.1%
Fair American
-104
Fair decimal
1.96
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 11, 2027
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 11, 2027.
January 11, 2027
· 7:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 51.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Edmonton Oilers
48.9%
Fair American
+104
Fair decimal
2.04
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 11, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 4-1
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 27.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Net units
- 1.84
- ROI
- 92.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.93
- ROI
- 10.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
137:07 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 118 / 86
- Corsi share
- 60.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.8%
- xG for / against
- 8.71 / 6.11
Defense pair
141:59 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 88 / 130
- Fenwick for / against
- 63 / 90
- Corsi share
- 40.4%
- Fenwick share
- 41.2%
- xG for / against
- 4.22 / 4.74
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Edmonton Oilers
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Tristan Jarry
Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 24
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 102
- Save %
- 85.3
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 25.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Edmonton Oilers
- xG for / game
- 3.09
- xG against / game
- 2.91
- xG differential / game
- 0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.1
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 24.4 · Shooting: 17.6% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
EDM
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 17 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.773 |
| 38 | Goals for | 49 |
| 34 | Goals against | 39 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 10 |
| OT1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
EDM home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -4 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
EDM
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 8-2-0 |
| 15 | Points | 16 |
| 37 | Goals for | 44 |
| 29 | Goals against | 33 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 11 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
EDM
4 wins
Total goals36 – 29
Goal differential
+7
/
-7
Goals per game3.6 / 2.9
Shots per game29.1 / 34.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
5 - 2 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Nov 20, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 35 | View |
| Feb 25, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 36 | View |
| Dec 10, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
1 - 2 | 22 - 25 | View |
| Dec 14, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
7 - 4 | 24 - 57 | View |
| Nov 18, 2023 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 6 | 42 - 24 | View |
| Jan 19, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
3 - 5 | 31 - 34 | View |
| Nov 8, 2022 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 29 - 37 | View |
| Mar 12, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
1 - 4 | 32 - 49 | View |
| Feb 23, 2022 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 5 | 30 - 23 | View |