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Philadelphia Flyers vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 9, 2027

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 9, 2027.

March 9, 2027 · 9:00 PM MBT
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-6

31.1%
at
Home

Colorado Avalanche

11-6-3

68.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 68.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

31.1%
Fair American +222
Fair decimal 3.22
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

68.9%
Fair American -222
Fair decimal 1.45
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 9, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:58 together · 9 games

xG share55.9%
Corsi for / against
55 / 65
Fenwick for / against
35 / 40
Corsi share
45.8%
Fenwick share
46.7%
xG for / against
2.83 / 2.24
Defense pair

123:30 together · 10 games

xG share51.8%
Corsi for / against
108 / 106
Fenwick for / against
79 / 79
Corsi share
50.5%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
5.67 / 5.28
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Defense pair

86:28 together · 9 games

xG share59.4%
Corsi for / against
98 / 70
Fenwick for / against
79 / 55
Corsi share
58.3%
Fenwick share
59.0%
xG for / against
6.31 / 4.32
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 9, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar
GP
11
Starts
11
Wins
3
Save %
0.879
GAA
3.24
J. Woll
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
2
Save %
0.901
GAA
2.91
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dan Vladar

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 11

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
108
Save %
84.3
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
33.3

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
121
Save %
90.9
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
3.08
xG against / game
3.15
xG differential / game
-0.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.25
xG against / game
2.95
xG differential / game
0.30

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.4
Corsi share (%)
52.1
Fenwick share (%)
51.0
Faceoff win %
50.7
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 29.8 ft

Colorado Avalanche

9 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.1
Corsi share (%)
52.5
Fenwick share (%)
51.9
Faceoff win %
50.4
Penalties / game
4.33

Shots / game: 30.2 · Shooting: 13.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 9, 2027.

Philadelphia Flyers

O. Tippett Hot · +1.46 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 2.00 points/game
0.54 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
2.7
J. Drysdale Cold · -0.37 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.37 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.5
N. Acciari Hot · +0.37 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.60 points/game
0.23 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.4
M. Michkov Hot · +0.30 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.00 points/game
0.70 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
1
Points
5
Shots / game
2.0
T. Sanheim Cold · -0.22 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.20 points/game
0.42 points/game across 179 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.6

Colorado Avalanche

N. MacKinnon Cold · -0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
1.54 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
2.8
A. Lehkonen Cold · -0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.20 points/game
0.72 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.2
N. Roy Cold · -0.40 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.5
M. Necas Cold · -0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.80 points/game
1.18 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
4.2
J. Manson Cold · -0.37 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.37 points/game across 135 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
16Points25
0.381Points %0.625
47Goals for81
69Goals against63
-22Goal differential18
OT1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
11Games10
2Wins7
7Points16
-12Goal differential20
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
3-4-3Record6-2-2
9Points14
30Goals for40
33Goals against32
-3Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 6 wins
Total goals33 – 34
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game3.3 / 3.4
Shots per game28.6 / 32.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 19, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 26 - 24 View
Jan 23, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
7 - 3 20 - 35 View
Dec 7, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2 28 - 25 View
Feb 2, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
0 - 2 24 - 32 View
Nov 18, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2 29 - 26 View
Jan 20, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
7 - 4 25 - 40 View
Dec 9, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 2 34 - 38 View
Dec 13, 2022
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 28 - 25 View
Dec 5, 2022
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 5 32 - 34 View
Mar 25, 2022
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 6 31 - 51 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PHI COL