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Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 8, 2026

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 8, 2026.

November 8, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

3
Final
Home

Calgary Flames

8-9-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Calgary Flames at 65.5% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

34.5%
Fair American +190
Fair decimal 2.9
Best market -118 · BetRivers
Market implied 54.1%
Edge -19.6%
Expected value -36.3%
Calculate value
Calgary Flames logo
Home team

Calgary Flames

65.5%
Fair American -190
Fair decimal 1.53
Best market +105 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 48.8%
Edge +16.7%
Expected value +34.3%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 8, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-1.25
ROI
-31.3%

Value Picks

Bets
14
Record
5-9
Net units
-1.27
ROI
-9.1%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

72:08 together · 9 games

xG share56.1%
Corsi for / against
52 / 64
Fenwick for / against
31 / 41
Corsi share
44.8%
Fenwick share
43.1%
xG for / against
2.91 / 2.28
Defense pair

85:24 together · 10 games

xG share48.1%
Corsi for / against
77 / 85
Fenwick for / against
52 / 51
Corsi share
47.5%
Fenwick share
50.5%
xG for / against
3.39 / 3.66
All observed combinations

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

90:43 together · 10 games

xG share40.6%
Corsi for / against
85 / 85
Fenwick for / against
66 / 62
Corsi share
50.0%
Fenwick share
51.6%
xG for / against
3.38 / 4.94
Defense pair

134:04 together · 9 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
106 / 130
Fenwick for / against
76 / 106
Corsi share
44.9%
Fenwick share
41.8%
xG for / against
5.13 / 6.94
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Philadelphia Flyers

Dan Vladar 68.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dan Vladar?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.735
Started last game
+0.301
Prev save pct
-0.291
Won previous appearance
-0.211
Days since last start
+0.206
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Calgary Flames

Dustin Wolf Only eligible candidate

Why Dustin Wolf?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.527
Prev save pct
-0.307
Started last game
-0.294
Goalie win pct before
-0.235
Won previous appearance
-0.213
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 8, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 8, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
3
Save %
0.883
GAA
3.21
J. Woll
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
1
Save %
0.898
GAA
3.12

Calgary Flames

D. Wolf
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
3
Save %
0.869
GAA
3.75
D. Cooley
GP
7
Starts
7
Wins
4
Save %
0.912
GAA
2.69
A. Sergeev
GP
1
Starts
1
Wins
0
Save %
0.848
GAA
5.00
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 5

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
88.2
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
32.4

Dustin Wolf

Calgary Flames · Last start: Nov 6

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
3.17
xG differential / game
-0.27

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.39
xG against / game
3.13
xG differential / game
-0.74

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.8
Corsi share (%)
50.0
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 25.7 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 29.7 ft

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.2
Corsi share (%)
45.8
Fenwick share (%)
45.3
Faceoff win %
45.6
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 35.4 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 8, 2026.

Philadelphia Flyers

M. Bunting Hot · +2.01 P/GP

5 games vs Calgary Flames · 2.40 points/game
0.39 points/game across 153 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
8
Points
12
Shots / game
3.4
O. Tippett Cold · -0.58 P/GP

4 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.00 points/game
0.58 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
T. Zegras Cold · -0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.20 points/game
0.74 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.6
C. Dvorak Cold · -0.52 P/GP

4 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.00 points/game
0.52 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
T. Sanheim Cold · -0.42 P/GP

4 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.00 points/game
0.42 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.5

Calgary Flames

C. Zary Hot · +0.87 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.25 points/game
0.38 points/game across 126 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
2.0
Y. Sharangovich Hot · +0.62 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
2.0
J. Hanley Hot · +0.54 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.67 points/game
0.13 points/game across 120 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
0.0
J. Farabee Cold · -0.45 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
M. Coronato Hot · +0.40 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
0.60 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
0.3
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
15Points17
0.375Points %0.472
45Goals for46
66Goals against63
-21Goal differential-17
W1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY home
10Games10
2Wins6
6Points12
-11Goal differential0
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
4-4-2Record6-3-1
10Points13
31Goals for29
32Goals against26
-1Goal differential3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Calgary Flames CGY 7 wins
Total goals22 – 38
Goal differential -16 / +16
Goals per game2.2 / 3.8
Shots per game29.6 / 30.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 31, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
1 - 5 26 - 25 View
Nov 2, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 1 21 - 18 View
Mar 4, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 3 34 - 29 View
Oct 12, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 6 40 - 32 View
Jan 6, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 24 - 42 View
Dec 31, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 4 31 - 33 View
Feb 20, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 3 22 - 35 View
Nov 21, 2022
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 2 30 - 25 View
Nov 16, 2021
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 2 34 - 43 View
Oct 30, 2021
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
0 - 4 20 - 36 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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