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Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 9, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 9, 2027.

March 9, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Ottawa Senators

12-6-2

40.8%
at
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

7-10-2

59.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 59.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

40.8%
Fair American +145
Fair decimal 2.45
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

59.2%
Fair American -145
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 9, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
3-3
Net units
-0.90
ROI
-15.1%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.07
ROI
-1.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.61
ROI
-13.4%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Forward trio

36:22 together · 6 games

xG share44.6%
Corsi for / against
35 / 40
Fenwick for / against
21 / 35
Corsi share
46.7%
Fenwick share
37.5%
xG for / against
1.81 / 2.25
Defense pair

117:47 together · 9 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
111 / 102
Fenwick for / against
80 / 87
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
47.9%
xG for / against
5.57 / 5.48
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

66:27 together · 6 games

xG share54.9%
Corsi for / against
75 / 58
Fenwick for / against
54 / 46
Corsi share
56.4%
Fenwick share
54.0%
xG for / against
3.93 / 3.23
Defense pair

109:28 together · 10 games

xG share45.5%
Corsi for / against
109 / 112
Fenwick for / against
78 / 82
Corsi share
49.3%
Fenwick share
48.8%
xG for / against
5.12 / 6.12
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 9, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Pittsburgh Penguins

A. Silovs
GP
12
Starts
12
Wins
5
Save %
0.873
GAA
3.35
S. Murashov
GP
7
Starts
7
Wins
2
Save %
0.889
GAA
3.26
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
92.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
24.2

Sergei Murashov

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Nov 11

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
86.0
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
29.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.42
xG against / game
3.00
xG differential / game
0.42

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.04
xG against / game
3.31
xG differential / game
-0.27

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.9
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.4
Faceoff win %
55.9
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 12.8% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.0
Corsi share (%)
52.3
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
47.6
Penalties / game
3.1

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 11.4% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 9, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

D. Cozens Cold · -0.66 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.00 points/game
0.66 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.4
J. Spence Hot · +0.65 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.00 points/game
0.35 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
5
Points
5
Shots / game
0.6
D. Batherson Hot · +0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.40 points/game
0.86 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
3.2
F. Zetterlund Cold · -0.45 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 180 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.4
T. Kleven Hot · +0.42 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.60 points/game
0.18 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.4

Pittsburgh Penguins

S. Crosby Cold · -0.90 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.20 points/game
1.10 points/game across 161 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.0
B. Rust Cold · -0.72 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.20 points/game
0.92 points/game across 145 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.4
C. Dewar Cold · -0.32 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.32 points/game across 140 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
T. Novak Cold · -0.31 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.20 points/game
0.51 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.8
E. Soderblom Cold · -0.29 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 87 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
26Points16
0.650Points %0.421
64Goals for61
60Goals against67
4Goal differential-6
W1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
10Games8
5Wins4
11Points9
1Goal differential0
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
5-3-2Record4-5-1
12Points9
35Goals for32
36Goals against34
-1Goal differential-2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 2 wins
Total goals32 – 17
Goal differential +15 / -15
Goals per game3.2 / 1.7
Shots per game28.2 / 33.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 26, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 3 38 - 29 View
Feb 2, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 2 31 - 16 View
Dec 18, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
0 - 4 24 - 26 View
Mar 30, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 1 31 - 35 View
Jan 11, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 0 22 - 29 View
Dec 14, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 27 - 31 View
Mar 12, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 35 - 39 View
Dec 23, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 5 34 - 26 View
Oct 28, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 2 26 - 43 View
Mar 20, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 1 21 - 49 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT PIT