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Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 16, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 16, 2027.

March 16, 2027 · 6:00 PM MBT
Away

Ottawa Senators

11-6-2

43.3%
at
Home

New York Rangers

10-8-1

56.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Rangers at 56.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

43.3%
Fair American +131
Fair decimal 2.31
Calculate value
New York Rangers logo
Home team

New York Rangers

56.7%
Fair American -131
Fair decimal 1.76
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 16, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
3-3
Net units
-0.90
ROI
-15.1%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.07
ROI
-1.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.61
ROI
-13.4%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:39 together · 7 games

xG share43.9%
Corsi for / against
37 / 43
Fenwick for / against
22 / 38
Corsi share
46.3%
Fenwick share
36.7%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.35
Defense pair

127:26 together · 10 games

xG share50.3%
Corsi for / against
116 / 109
Fenwick for / against
84 / 92
Corsi share
51.6%
Fenwick share
47.7%
xG for / against
5.83 / 5.77
All observed combinations

New York Rangers

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Defense pair

135:06 together · 9 games

xG share59.7%
Corsi for / against
143 / 124
Fenwick for / against
99 / 92
Corsi share
53.6%
Fenwick share
51.8%
xG for / against
6.28 / 4.23
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Mar 16, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
92.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
24.2

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.34
xG against / game
2.87
xG differential / game
0.46

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.37
xG against / game
2.83
xG differential / game
0.54

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.9
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.4
Faceoff win %
55.9
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.9% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.1
Corsi share (%)
51.4
Fenwick share (%)
51.1
Faceoff win %
54.1
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 29.7 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Mar 16, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

D. Cozens Hot · +0.78 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.40 points/game
0.62 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
2.8
J. Sanderson Hot · +0.65 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.40 points/game
0.75 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
5
Points
7
Shots / game
1.8
R. Greig Hot · +0.58 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.00 points/game
0.42 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
0.8
D. Batherson Hot · +0.53 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.40 points/game
0.87 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
5
Assists
2
Points
7
Shots / game
2.4
T. Stützle Cold · -0.45 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.60 points/game
1.05 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
2.2

New York Rangers

J. Miller Hot · +0.77 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.60 points/game
0.83 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
7
Points
8
Shots / game
0.6
N. Laba Hot · +0.71 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 91 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.3
S. Morrow Hot · +0.43 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.67 points/game
0.24 points/game across 46 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.0
T. Raddysh Cold · -0.32 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.32 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.0
P. Dorofeyev Cold · -0.30 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.40 points/game
0.70 points/game across 179 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
0
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
24Points21
0.632Points %0.553
60Goals for56
57Goals against55
3Goal differential1
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
New York Rangers NYR home
10Games10
5Wins8
11Points16
1Goal differential16
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
5-3-2Record4-5-1
12Points9
36Goals for28
34Goals against34
2Goal differential-6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 5 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Rangers NYR 5 wins
Total goals32 – 36
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game3.2 / 3.6
Shots per game30.4 / 25.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 24, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 7 28 - 24 View
Mar 23, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers New York Rangers
2 - 1 33 - 9 View
Jan 14, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers New York Rangers
8 - 4 30 - 22 View
Dec 4, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 2 28 - 27 View
Mar 8, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 4 23 - 37 View
Jan 21, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers New York Rangers
0 - 5 20 - 29 View
Nov 1, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 2 41 - 18 View
Apr 15, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers New York Rangers
0 - 4 25 - 34 View
Jan 27, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
7 - 2 29 - 31 View
Dec 5, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 6 35 - 36 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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