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Ottawa Senators vs Minnesota Wild prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 15, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 15, 2027.

February 15, 2027 · 7:30 PM MBT
Away

Ottawa Senators

11-6-2

43.5%
at
Home

Minnesota Wild

13-3-4

56.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Minnesota Wild at 56.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

43.5%
Fair American +130
Fair decimal 2.3
Calculate value
Minnesota Wild logo
Home team

Minnesota Wild

56.5%
Fair American -130
Fair decimal 1.77
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 15, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
3-3
Net units
-0.90
ROI
-15.1%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.07
ROI
-1.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.61
ROI
-13.4%
Full team betting results

Minnesota Wild

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
9-3
Net units
2.86
ROI
23.8%

Value Picks

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Net units
-1.64
ROI
-23.4%

Market Favourite

Bets
14
Record
11-3
Net units
4.36
ROI
31.2%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:39 together · 7 games

xG share43.9%
Corsi for / against
37 / 43
Fenwick for / against
22 / 38
Corsi share
46.3%
Fenwick share
36.7%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.35
Defense pair

127:26 together · 10 games

xG share50.3%
Corsi for / against
116 / 109
Fenwick for / against
84 / 92
Corsi share
51.6%
Fenwick share
47.7%
xG for / against
5.83 / 5.77
All observed combinations

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

112:44 together · 10 games

xG share52.4%
Corsi for / against
118 / 100
Fenwick for / against
86 / 78
Corsi share
54.1%
Fenwick share
52.4%
xG for / against
5.72 / 5.19
Defense pair

127:00 together · 10 games

xG share44.8%
Corsi for / against
130 / 118
Fenwick for / against
91 / 86
Corsi share
52.4%
Fenwick share
51.4%
xG for / against
5.04 / 6.20
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Feb 15, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
92.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
24.2

Jesper Wallstedt

Minnesota Wild · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
93.1
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.34
xG against / game
2.87
xG differential / game
0.46

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Minnesota Wild

xG for / game
3.42
xG against / game
2.78
xG differential / game
0.64

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.9
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.4
Faceoff win %
55.9
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.9% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.6
Corsi share (%)
50.6
Fenwick share (%)
52.0
Faceoff win %
44.1
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 11.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Feb 15, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

D. Batherson Hot · +0.64 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 1.50 points/game
0.86 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
4
Points
6
Shots / game
2.3
W. Eklund Hot · +0.50 P/GP

5 games vs Minnesota Wild · 1.20 points/game
0.70 points/game across 153 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
3
Points
6
Shots / game
2.0
J. Sanderson Hot · +0.50 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 1.25 points/game
0.75 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
3.3
T. Stützle Hot · +0.49 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 1.50 points/game
1.01 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
4
Points
6
Shots / game
1.8
F. Zetterlund Cold · -0.45 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 181 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.5

Minnesota Wild

M. Boldy Cold · -1.01 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
1.01 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.0
N. Foligno Hot · +0.64 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.00 points/game
0.36 points/game across 134 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
0.3
R. Hartman Hot · +0.32 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.75 points/game
0.43 points/game across 161 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
0
Points
3
Shots / game
3.3
B. Coleman Cold · -0.24 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.25 points/game
0.49 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.3
M. McCarron Cold · -0.23 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.23 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.2
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Minnesota Wild MIN
24Points30
0.632Points %0.750
60Goals for65
57Goals against44
3Goal differential21
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Minnesota Wild MIN home
10Games7
5Wins5
11Points12
1Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Minnesota Wild MIN
5-3-2Record7-1-2
12Points16
36Goals for34
34Goals against19
2Goal differential15
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Minnesota Wild MIN 6 wins
Total goals28 – 28
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game2.8 / 2.8
Shots per game34.1 / 28.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 4, 2026
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 1 23 - 34 View
Dec 13, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 3 36 - 25 View
Feb 1, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
0 - 6 16 - 52 View
Dec 29, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
3 - 1 37 - 31 View
Apr 2, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 3 32 - 19 View
Nov 18, 2023
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 25 - 31 View
Dec 18, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 4 28 - 23 View
Oct 27, 2022
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 2 40 - 29 View
Feb 22, 2022
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 4 43 - 34 View
Nov 2, 2021
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
4 - 5 28 - 43 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT MIN