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Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 26, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 26, 2027.

February 26, 2027 · 7:30 PM MBT
Away

Ottawa Senators

11-6-2

46.5%
at
Home

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

53.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Buffalo Sabres at 53.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

46.5%
Fair American +115
Fair decimal 2.15
Calculate value
Buffalo Sabres logo
Home team

Buffalo Sabres

53.5%
Fair American -115
Fair decimal 1.87
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 26, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
3-3
Net units
-0.90
ROI
-15.1%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.07
ROI
-1.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.61
ROI
-13.4%
Full team betting results

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.52
ROI
-12.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:39 together · 7 games

xG share43.9%
Corsi for / against
37 / 43
Fenwick for / against
22 / 38
Corsi share
46.3%
Fenwick share
36.7%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.35
Defense pair

127:26 together · 10 games

xG share50.3%
Corsi for / against
116 / 109
Fenwick for / against
84 / 92
Corsi share
51.6%
Fenwick share
47.7%
xG for / against
5.83 / 5.77
All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
75 / 69
Fenwick for / against
55 / 57
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
3.74 / 4.14
Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
114 / 106
Fenwick for / against
73 / 74
Corsi share
51.8%
Fenwick share
49.7%
xG for / against
4.43 / 4.32
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Feb 26, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
92.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
24.2

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
123
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
30.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.34
xG against / game
2.87
xG differential / game
0.46

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
3.65
xG differential / game
-0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.9
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.4
Faceoff win %
55.9
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.9% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
43.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Feb 26, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

D. Batherson Cold · -0.70 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.20 points/game
0.90 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.0
R. Greig Hot · +0.58 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.42 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Shots / game
1.0
J. Spence Hot · +0.45 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.80 points/game
0.35 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
1.2
T. Stützle Cold · -0.45 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.60 points/game
1.05 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
3.8
T. Chabot Cold · -0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.20 points/game
0.59 points/game across 145 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.4

Buffalo Sabres

J. Norris Cold · -0.65 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.65 points/game across 114 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.7
Z. Benson Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.00 points/game
0.53 points/game across 149 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
5
Points
5
Shots / game
2.0
M. Samuelsson Hot · +0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.80 points/game
0.40 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
0.8
P. Krebs Hot · +0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.80 points/game
0.41 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.0
O. Zellweger Cold · -0.32 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.32 points/game across 149 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.8
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
24Points19
0.632Points %0.559
60Goals for50
57Goals against57
3Goal differential-7
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
10Games9
5Wins4
11Points8
1Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
5-3-2Record5-3-2
12Points12
36Goals for31
34Goals against31
2Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 7 wins
Total goals26 – 37
Goal differential -11 / +11
Goals per game2.6 / 3.7
Shots per game32.7 / 26.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 4, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 1 30 - 24 View
Apr 2, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 4 22 - 24 View
Dec 23, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 25 - 26 View
Oct 15, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 8 37 - 27 View
Apr 1, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 2 22 - 35 View
Mar 25, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 32 - 24 View
Jan 9, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 0 21 - 35 View
Nov 5, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
1 - 5 38 - 34 View
Mar 27, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
6 - 2 42 - 36 View
Jan 11, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 5 28 - 32 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT BUF