Skip to content

New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 23, 2027

NHL matchup

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 23, 2027.

February 23, 2027 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

New York Rangers

7-7-1

40.9%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

8-5-0

59.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 59.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Rangers logo
Away team

New York Rangers

40.9%
Fair American +144
Fair decimal 2.44
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

59.1%
Fair American -144
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 23, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 23. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

147:58 together · 10 games

xG share60.7%
Corsi for / against
154 / 158
Fenwick for / against
114 / 102
Corsi share
49.4%
Fenwick share
52.8%
xG for / against
7.88 / 5.11
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

72:01 together · 9 games

xG share61.8%
Corsi for / against
82 / 69
Fenwick for / against
59 / 47
Corsi share
54.3%
Fenwick share
55.7%
xG for / against
4.57 / 2.83
Defense pair

78:32 together · 10 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
64 / 96
Fenwick for / against
51 / 73
Corsi share
40.0%
Fenwick share
41.1%
xG for / against
3.24 / 4.39
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Feb 23, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Nov 1

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
86.8
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
32.6

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Nov 1

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
143
Save %
89.5
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
27.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 23, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.08
xG against / game
2.96
xG differential / game
0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
0.48

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 23, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.0
Corsi share (%)
49.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.0
Faceoff win %
55.5
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 25.8 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 29.7 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
48.3
Fenwick share (%)
50.2
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Feb 23, 2027.

New York Rangers

W. Cuylle Hot · +0.71 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.20 points/game
0.49 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
2.6
T. Raddysh Hot · +0.71 P/GP

3 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.3
B. Schneider Hot · +0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.60 points/game
0.21 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.0
M. Zibanejad Hot · +0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.20 points/game
0.85 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
6
Points
6
Shots / game
2.2
J. Veleno Hot · +0.35 P/GP

4 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.50 points/game
0.15 points/game across 135 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.5

Washington Capitals

J. Chychrun Cold · -0.72 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.00 points/game
0.72 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.8
T. Wilson Hot · +0.63 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.40 points/game
0.77 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
3
Points
7
Shots / game
2.4
A. Ovechkin Cold · -0.48 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.40 points/game
0.88 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
2.6
D. Strome Cold · -0.46 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.40 points/game
0.86 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.4
A. Tuch Cold · -0.45 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.40 points/game
0.85 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
0
Points
2
Shots / game
2.6
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
15Points16
0.500Points %0.615
45Goals for44
46Goals against42
-1Goal differential2
L4Current streakL1
Road versus home
New York Rangers NYR road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
7Games9
1Wins6
3Points12
-14Goal differential2
Last 10 games
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
3-6-1Record6-4-0
7Points12
29Goals for33
38Goals against34
-9Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Rangers NYR 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 7 wins
Total goals32 – 33
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game3.2 / 3.3
Shots per game26.2 / 27.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 9, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 3 22 - 27 View
Apr 5, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 8 21 - 32 View
Dec 31, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 6 25 - 27 View
Dec 23, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
7 - 3 21 - 32 View
Oct 12, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 0 21 - 35 View
Mar 5, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 26 - 17 View
Jan 4, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 7 33 - 28 View
Oct 29, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 5 19 - 46 View
Jan 14, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 2 25 - 31 View
Jan 13, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 3 27 - 21 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYR WSH