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New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 16, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 16, 2026.

December 16, 2026 · 7:30 PM MBT
Away

New York Rangers

10-8-1

43.9%
at
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

56.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Philadelphia Flyers at 56.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Rangers logo
Away team

New York Rangers

43.9%
Fair American +128
Fair decimal 2.28
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

56.1%
Fair American -128
Fair decimal 1.78
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 16, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

149:50 together · 10 games

xG share58.2%
Corsi for / against
154 / 142
Fenwick for / against
108 / 105
Corsi share
52.0%
Fenwick share
50.7%
xG for / against
6.82 / 4.90
All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

76:15 together · 9 games

xG share55.6%
Corsi for / against
55 / 68
Fenwick for / against
33 / 41
Corsi share
44.7%
Fenwick share
44.6%
xG for / against
2.69 / 2.14
Defense pair

106:10 together · 10 games

xG share49.9%
Corsi for / against
95 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 66
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
51.1%
xG for / against
4.73 / 4.75
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 16, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
3
Save %
0.880
GAA
3.27
J. Woll
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
2
Save %
0.901
GAA
2.91
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.4

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
88.4
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.43
xG against / game
2.86
xG differential / game
0.56

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
-0.04

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.0
Corsi share (%)
51.3
Fenwick share (%)
51.0
Faceoff win %
54.1
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 28.4 · Shooting: 9.9% · Avg distance: 29.7 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.8
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.7
Faceoff win %
50.6
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 29.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 16, 2026.

New York Rangers

M. Zibanejad Hot · +0.98 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.80 points/game
0.82 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
6
Assists
3
Points
9
Shots / game
2.8
J. Veleno Hot · +0.66 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.80 points/game
0.14 points/game across 133 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
0.6
S. Morrow Hot · +0.52 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.75 points/game
0.23 points/game across 44 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
2.0
T. Raddysh Hot · +0.51 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.80 points/game
0.29 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.4
T. Kartye Hot · +0.49 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.80 points/game
0.31 points/game across 140 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
1
Points
4
Shots / game
2.0

Philadelphia Flyers

T. Foerster Hot · +0.77 P/GP

4 games vs New York Rangers · 1.25 points/game
0.48 points/game across 125 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
2.5
T. Sanheim Hot · +0.62 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Shots / game
1.6
D. Barkey Hot · +0.42 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.80 points/game
0.38 points/game across 55 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
0.8
N. Acciari Hot · +0.36 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 0.60 points/game
0.24 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
0
Points
3
Shots / game
1.0
T. Zegras Hot · +0.29 P/GP

5 games vs New York Rangers · 1.00 points/game
0.71 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
21Points15
0.553Points %0.375
56Goals for45
55Goals against66
1Goal differential-21
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
New York Rangers NYR road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
9Games10
2Wins3
5Points9
-15Goal differential-10
Last 10 games
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
4-5-1Record4-4-2
9Points10
28Goals for31
34Goals against32
-6Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Rangers NYR 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 4 wins
Total goals41 – 35
Goal differential +6 / -6
Goals per game4.1 / 3.5
Shots per game27.6 / 31.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 5, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers New York Rangers
2 - 3 25 - 28 View
Mar 9, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 2 27 - 34 View
Feb 26, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 24 - 25 View
Jan 17, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 3 28 - 28 View
Dec 20, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers New York Rangers
4 - 5 32 - 27 View
Apr 9, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers New York Rangers
8 - 5 30 - 29 View
Jan 23, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 6 34 - 37 View
Nov 29, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 3 23 - 35 View
Apr 11, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers New York Rangers
4 - 1 26 - 25 View
Mar 26, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 6 42 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYR PHI