Forward trio
107:12 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 117 / 116
- Fenwick for / against
- 94 / 87
- Corsi share
- 50.2%
- Fenwick share
- 51.9%
- xG for / against
- 5.69 / 6.30
Montréal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 31, 2026
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 31, 2026.
March 31, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 31. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
136:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 102 / 169
- Fenwick for / against
- 79 / 122
- Corsi share
- 37.6%
- Fenwick share
- 39.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.02 / 9.47
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
83:13 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 73 / 69
- Fenwick for / against
- 47 / 51
- Corsi share
- 51.4%
- Fenwick share
- 48.0%
- xG for / against
- 2.77 / 2.63
Defense pair
146:10 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 191 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 136 / 85
- Corsi share
- 65.2%
- Fenwick share
- 61.5%
- xG for / against
- 7.67 / 4.59
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jakub Dobes
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Mar 29
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 159
- Save %
- 95.0
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 27.7
Jonas Johansson
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 29
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 156
- Save %
- 87.2
- Goals allowed
- 20
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.57
- xG against / game
- 3.40
- xG differential / game
- 0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.13
- xG against / game
- 2.57
- xG differential / game
- 0.56
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.8
- Faceoff win %
- 51.9
- Penalties / game
- 3.2
Shots / game: 26.9 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 53.6
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 28.2 · Shooting: 14.9% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 15 |
| 0.636 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 36 | Goals for | 38 |
| 36 | Goals against | 34 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 3 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 33 | Goals for | 37 |
| 34 | Goals against | 29 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
3 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
7 wins
Total goals32 – 42
Goal differential
-10
/
+10
Goals per game3.2 / 4.2
Shots per game29.3 / 27.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 5 | 36 - 22 | View |
| Dec 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
6 - 1 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Feb 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 3 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Jan 21, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 3 | 35 - 22 | View |
| Dec 29, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 37 - 23 | View |
| Apr 4, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
7 - 4 | 35 - 30 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Dec 31, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 20 | View |
| Nov 7, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 3 | 32 - 26 | View |
| Mar 21, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 3 | 33 - 20 | View |