Montréal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 31, 2026
Get the playerWON NHL prediction for the Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning matchup on March 31, 2026. playerWON’s machine-learning model currently gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 58.4% win probability.
🤖 Model favours Tampa Bay Lightning
(58.4%)
Compare market odds, fair odds, and value below.
March 31, 2026
Visitor Model vs Market
Montréal Canadiens
41.6%
Fair American: +140
Fair Decimal: 2.4
Calculate Value →
Home Model vs Market
Tampa Bay Lightning
58.4%
Fair American: -140
Fair Decimal: 1.71
Calculate Value →
📊 Season Overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Points | 106 |
| 0.646 | Points % | 0.646 |
| 283 | Goals For | 290 |
| 256 | Goals Against | 231 |
| 27 | Goal Differential | 59 |
| L1 | Current Streak | L1 |
🚍 Road vs 🏠 Home
|
MTL (Road)
|
Metric |
TBL (Home)
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 24 | Wins | 26 |
| 56 | Points | 53 |
| 17 | Goal Differential | 22 |
🔥 Last 10 Games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-3-0 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 14 | Points | 10 |
| 28 | Goals For | 26 |
| 24 | Goals Against | 30 |
| 4 | Goal Differential | -4 |
🥅 Last 10 Head-to-Head Games
|
MTL
|
H2H Summary |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | Record | 7-3 |
| 32 | Total Goals | 42 |
| -10 | Goal Differential | +10 |
| 3.2 | Goals / Game | 4.2 |
| 29.3 | Shots / Game | 27.7 |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 5 | 36 - 22 | View |
| Dec 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montréal Canadiens
@
|
6 - 1 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Feb 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montréal Canadiens
@
|
5 - 3 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Jan 21, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montréal Canadiens
@
|
2 - 3 | 35 - 22 | View |
| Dec 29, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
5 - 2 | 37 - 23 | View |
| Apr 4, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montréal Canadiens
@
|
7 - 4 | 35 - 30 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 4 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Dec 31, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 20 | View |
| Nov 7, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montréal Canadiens
@
|
5 - 3 | 32 - 26 | View |
| Mar 21, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montréal Canadiens
@
|
2 - 3 | 33 - 20 | View |
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.