Montréal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | January 18, 2027

January 18, 2027 · 2:00 PM MBT

Away

Montréal Canadiens

11-3-4

52.5% Model pick

Home

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

47.5%

Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 52.5%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Montréal Canadiens

52.5%

Fair American -111

Fair decimal 1.9

Calculate value

Home team

Buffalo Sabres

47.5%

Fair American +111

Fair decimal 2.11

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 18, 2027.

Montréal Canadiens

All Model Picks

Bets: 11
Record: 8-3
Net units: 2.91
ROI: 26.5%

Value Picks

Bets: 5
Record: 3-2
Net units: 1.26
ROI: 25.2%

Market Favourite

Bets: 12
Record: 8-4
Net units: 1.91
ROI: 15.9%

Full team betting results

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets: 12
Record: 6-6
Net units: -1.52
ROI: -12.7%

Value Picks

Bets: 6
Record: 1-5
Net units: -4.07
ROI: -67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 9
Record: 6-3
Net units: 1.24
ROI: 13.8%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

91:57 together · 10 games

xG share60.1%

Corsi for / against: 92 / 75
Fenwick for / against: 69 / 55
Corsi share: 55.1%
Fenwick share: 55.6%
xG for / against: 4.26 / 2.83

Defense pair

126:13 together · 10 games

xG share59.4%

Corsi for / against: 157 / 115
Fenwick for / against: 112 / 84
Corsi share: 57.7%
Fenwick share: 57.1%
xG for / against: 7.47 / 5.12

All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%

Corsi for / against: 75 / 69
Fenwick for / against: 55 / 57
Corsi share: 52.1%
Fenwick share: 49.1%
xG for / against: 3.74 / 4.14

Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%

Corsi for / against: 114 / 106
Fenwick for / against: 73 / 74
Corsi share: 51.8%
Fenwick share: 49.7%
xG for / against: 4.43 / 4.32

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Buffalo Sabres

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Jan 18, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Montréal Canadiens

J. Fowler

GP: 11
Starts: 11
Wins: 8
Save %: 0.925
GAA: 2.14

J. Dobes

GP: 7
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.847
GAA: 4.04

S. Montembeault

GP: 0
Starts: 0
Wins: 0
Save %: —
GAA: —

Buffalo Sabres

U. Luukkonen

GP: 11
Starts: 10
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.878
GAA: 3.27

C. Ellis

GP: 7
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.884
GAA: 3.09

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 174
Save %: 92.5
Goals allowed: 13
Close-range shots %: 35.6

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 123
Save %: 88.6
Goals allowed: 14
Close-range shots %: 30.1

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game: 3.28
xG against / game: 3.43
xG differential / game: -0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game: 3.32
xG against / game: 3.65
xG differential / game: -0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 56.5
Corsi share (%): 48.0
Fenwick share (%): 48.6
Faceoff win %: 52.6
Penalties / game: 5.0

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 13.2% · Avg distance: 34.5 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 60.2
Corsi share (%): 50.5
Fenwick share (%): 49.6
Faceoff win %: 43.4
Penalties / game: 4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Jan 18, 2027.

Montréal Canadiens

C. Caufield Hot · +1.07 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.00 points/game
0.93 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals: 7
Assists: 3
Points: 10
Shots / game: 4.4

N. Suzuki Hot · +0.49 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.60 points/game
1.11 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 6
Points: 8
Shots / game: 2.8

P. Danault Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.0

I. Demidov Cold · -0.28 P/GP

4 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.50 points/game
0.78 points/game across 82 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 1
Points: 2
Shots / game: 2.0

J. Slafkovský Hot · +0.27 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.73 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 4
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.6

Buffalo Sabres

M. Grzelcyk Hot · +0.68 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.00 points/game
0.32 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 5
Points: 5
Shots / game: 0.6

T. Thompson Hot · +0.61 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.60 points/game
0.99 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals: 4
Assists: 4
Points: 8
Shots / game: 3.0

R. McLeod Cold · -0.46 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.20 points/game
0.66 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Points: 1
Shots / game: 0.6

B. Malenstyn Hot · +0.45 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.60 points/game
0.15 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 2
Points: 3
Shots / game: 0.8

J.Kulich Hot · +0.44 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.80 points/game
0.36 points/game across 78 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 2
Points: 4
Shots / game: 1.4

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

MTL	Metric	BUF
26	Points	19
0.722	Points %	0.559
62	Goals for	50
55	Goals against	57
7	Goal differential	-7
OT1	Current streak	L1

Road versus home

MTL road	Metric	BUF home
8	Games	9
6	Wins	4
13	Points	8
10	Goal differential	-6

Last 10 games

MTL	Metric	BUF
7-0-3	Record	5-3-2
17	Points	12
35	Goals for	31
25	Goals against	31
10	Goal differential	0

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

MTL 8 wins

10 games reviewed

BUF 2 wins

Total goals42 – 30

Goal differential +12 / -12

Goals per game4.2 / 3.0

Shots per game29.0 / 25.7

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Oct 17, 2026	Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens	3 - 4	26 - 34	View
Oct 13, 2026	Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens	3 - 4	17 - 38	View
Jan 31, 2026	Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres	4 - 2	31 - 38	View
Jan 22, 2026	Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens	4 - 2	17 - 34	View
Jan 15, 2026	Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres	3 - 5	23 - 27	View
Oct 20, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens	2 - 4	32 - 31	View
Mar 3, 2025	Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens	3 - 4	36 - 20	View
Mar 1, 2025	Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres	4 - 2	29 - 25	View
Dec 17, 2024	Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens	1 - 6	21 - 27	View
Nov 11, 2024	Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres	7 - 5	23 - 18	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Montréal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 18, 2027

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

Montréal Canadiens

Buffalo Sabres

Model V2 versus market

Montréal Canadiens

Buffalo Sabres

Team performance leading into this game

Montréal Canadiens

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Montréal Canadiens

Buffalo Sabres

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Montréal Canadiens

Buffalo Sabres

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Montréal Canadiens

Buffalo Sabres

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games