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Los Angeles Kings vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 21, 2026

NHL matchup

Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 21, 2026.

November 21, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Los Angeles Kings

5-8-2

42.6%
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

11-6-1

57.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 57.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Los Angeles Kings logo
Away team

Los Angeles Kings

42.6%
Fair American +135
Fair decimal 2.35
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

57.4%
Fair American -135
Fair decimal 1.74
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 21, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Los Angeles Kings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

102:12 together · 9 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
117 / 94
Fenwick for / against
84 / 72
Corsi share
55.5%
Fenwick share
53.8%
xG for / against
6.89 / 4.42
Defense pair

126:35 together · 10 games

xG share46.4%
Corsi for / against
92 / 112
Fenwick for / against
67 / 82
Corsi share
45.1%
Fenwick share
45.0%
xG for / against
4.84 / 5.59
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:06 together · 6 games

xG share45.3%
Corsi for / against
36 / 42
Fenwick for / against
22 / 37
Corsi share
46.2%
Fenwick share
37.3%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.22
Defense pair

115:11 together · 9 games

xG share49.0%
Corsi for / against
106 / 100
Fenwick for / against
77 / 85
Corsi share
51.5%
Fenwick share
47.5%
xG for / against
5.18 / 5.40
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 21, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Darcy Kuemper

Los Angeles Kings · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
141
Save %
88.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
37.6

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
92.2
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Los Angeles Kings

xG for / game
3.43
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.39

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.26
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.35

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Los Angeles Kings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.9
Corsi share (%)
49.3
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
50.1
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 12.8% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.3
Corsi share (%)
52.0
Fenwick share (%)
51.4
Faceoff win %
55.2
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 21, 2026.

Los Angeles Kings

E. Haula Hot · +0.62 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
1.6
B. Clarke Hot · +0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.00 points/game
0.46 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
4
Points
5
Shots / game
1.6
A. Panarin Hot · +0.51 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.60 points/game
1.09 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
4
Points
8
Shots / game
3.8
C. Perry Hot · +0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.80 points/game
0.42 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.2
E. Gustafsson Cold · -0.33 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.33 points/game across 72 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.7

Ottawa Senators

N. Matinpalo Hot · +0.57 P/GP

3 games vs Los Angeles Kings · 0.67 points/game
0.10 points/game across 104 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.0
D. Batherson Hot · +0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Los Angeles Kings · 1.40 points/game
0.86 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
5
Points
7
Shots / game
2.4
T. Chabot Hot · +0.45 P/GP

3 games vs Los Angeles Kings · 1.00 points/game
0.55 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
2.3
R. Greig Cold · -0.44 P/GP

3 games vs Los Angeles Kings · 0.00 points/game
0.44 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.7
M. Amadio Cold · -0.43 P/GP

5 games vs Los Angeles Kings · 0.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Los Angeles Kings LAK
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
12Points23
0.400Points %0.639
45Goals for58
52Goals against54
-7Goal differential4
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Los Angeles Kings LAK road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
8Games8
3Wins6
8Points12
-2Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Los Angeles Kings LAK
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
5-5-0Record5-4-1
10Points11
34Goals for35
31Goals against34
3Goal differential1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Los Angeles Kings LAK 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 2 wins
Total goals39 – 28
Goal differential +11 / -11
Goals per game3.9 / 2.8
Shots per game29.6 / 29.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 29, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
5 - 6 22 - 38 View
Nov 24, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
1 - 2 28 - 22 View
Nov 15, 2025
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 0 18 - 17 View
Nov 30, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
2 - 5 22 - 27 View
Oct 14, 2024
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
7 - 8 26 - 41 View
Mar 7, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
3 - 4 31 - 35 View
Nov 2, 2023
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 38 - 26 View
Dec 6, 2022
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 2 28 - 33 View
Nov 27, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
3 - 2 39 - 27 View
Nov 27, 2021
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
2 - 4 32 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings LAK OTT