Away team
Edmonton Oilers
58.5%
Fair American
-141
Fair decimal
1.71
Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 3, 2027
NHL matchup
Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 3, 2027.
March 3, 2027
· 7:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Edmonton Oilers at 58.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Calgary Flames
41.5%
Fair American
+141
Fair decimal
2.41
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 3, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 4-1
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 27.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Net units
- 1.84
- ROI
- 92.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.93
- ROI
- 10.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 10
- Record
- 4-6
- Net units
- 0.40
- ROI
- 4.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
137:07 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 118 / 86
- Corsi share
- 60.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.8%
- xG for / against
- 8.71 / 6.11
Defense pair
141:59 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 88 / 130
- Fenwick for / against
- 63 / 90
- Corsi share
- 40.4%
- Fenwick share
- 41.2%
- xG for / against
- 4.22 / 4.74
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
53:06 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 58 / 49
- Fenwick for / against
- 42 / 35
- Corsi share
- 54.2%
- Fenwick share
- 54.5%
- xG for / against
- 2.28 / 1.88
Defense pair
112:12 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 125 / 98
- Fenwick for / against
- 91 / 73
- Corsi share
- 56.1%
- Fenwick share
- 55.5%
- xG for / against
- 5.70 / 4.83
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Edmonton Oilers
Expected starter unavailable.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Tristan Jarry
Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 24
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 102
- Save %
- 85.3
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 25.5
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 159
- Save %
- 91.2
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 26.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Edmonton Oilers
- xG for / game
- 3.09
- xG against / game
- 2.91
- xG differential / game
- 0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.61
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- -0.76
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.1
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 24.4 · Shooting: 17.6% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.9
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.6
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 8.0% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
EDM
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Points | 8 |
| 0.773 | Points % | 0.400 |
| 49 | Goals for | 23 |
| 39 | Goals against | 39 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -16 |
| L1 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
EDM road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 5 | Wins | 3 |
| 10 | Points | 6 |
| 14 | Goal differential | -6 |
Last 10 games
|
EDM
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 8-2-0 | Record | 4-6-0 |
| 16 | Points | 8 |
| 44 | Goals for | 23 |
| 33 | Goals against | 39 |
| 11 | Goal differential | -16 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
EDM
5 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
5 wins
Total goals31 – 29
Goal differential
+2
/
-2
Goals per game3.1 / 2.9
Shots per game32.4 / 27.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 4 | 39 - 25 | View |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 3 | 31 - 32 | View |
| Dec 23, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
1 - 5 | 19 - 39 | View |
| Oct 8, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
4 - 3 | 22 - 35 | View |
| Mar 29, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 29 | View |
| Nov 3, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 2 | 31 - 31 | View |
| Oct 13, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
4 - 1 | 29 - 26 | View |
| Apr 6, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 2 | 27 - 35 | View |
| Feb 24, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
6 - 3 | 31 - 35 | View |
| Jan 20, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 1 | 32 - 27 | View |